Journal of Economic Policy Researches

SUBMITINFORMATION
EnglishTürkçe

Research Article


Full Text (PDF)

The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth

Ahmet İncekara, Betül Mutlugün, Hande Aksöz Yılmaz

While debt dollarization provide growth of the firms which under credit constraints in developing countries as Turkey, on the other side, it renders economies more open to systemic risks. Changes in real exchange rates which caused by external shocks may negatively affect balance sheets of manufacturing industry sectors because of their debt structures and underlies financial fragilities. Thus, high foreign debt stock of manufacturing industry in Turkey is one factor that increases economic fragilities. In this study, the effect of debt dollarization on the manufacturing industry sector growth will be covered and the effect of real exchange rate changes -which is a crucial variable for the firms that operates in high debt dollarization manufacturing industry- on these firms’ balance sheets and growth, will be discussed. In the empirical part of the study, panel data analysis conducted for 15 sub-sectors of manufacturing industry by using yearly series between years 1998-2013, and the effect of debt dollarization ratio on the manufacturing industry’s net sales growth. 

Keywords: Debt dollarization, manufacturing industry sector, sales growth, real exchange rate
JEL Classification : F31 , O47 , F65
Full Text (PDF)

BORÇ DOLARİZASYONUNUN TÜRK İMALAT SANAYİİ SEKTÖRÜ BÜYÜMESİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Ahmet İncekara, Betül Mutlugün, Hande Aksöz Yılmaz

Borç dolarizasyonu kredi kısıtları olan Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde şirketlerin büyümesine katkı yaparken, diğer yandan ekonomileri sistemik risklere daha açık hale getirmektedir. Dış şoklar sonucu reel kurda gerçekleşen değişmeler imalat sanayi sektörlerinin borç yapılarından dolayı bilançolarını olumsuz yönde etkileyebilmekte ve finansal kırılganlıkların temelini oluşturabilmektedir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’de imalat sanayiinde yabancı para cinsinden borç stokunun yüksek olması, ekonomide kırılganlıkların artmasına neden olan faktörlerdendir.  Bu çalışmada borç dolarizasyonunun imalat sanayii büyümesine etkileri ele alınacak ve borç dolarizasyon oranı yüksek olan imalat sanayiinde faaliyet gösteren firmalar için önemli bir değişken olan reel kur değişmelerinin, bu firmaların bilançoları ve büyümesi üzerinde yarattığı etkiler tartışılacaktır. Çalışmanın uygulama kısmında 1998-2013 yılları arasında 15 imalat sanayi alt sektörü verilerinden yola çıkılarak borç dolarizasyon oranının Türk imalat sanayii net satış büyümesine etkisi panel veri analizi yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. 

Keywords: Borç dolarizasyonu, imalat sanayii sektörü, satış büyümesi, reel döviz kuru
JEL Classification : F31 , O47 , F65

PDF View

References

  • Alesina, A ve Barro, R (2001), “Dollarization”, American Economic Review, 91(2), 386–390. google scholar
  • Alp, B (2013), Türkiye’deki Reel Sektör Firmalarında Borç Dolarizasyonu Ve Reel Kur Değişimlerinin Bilanço Etkisi, TCMB Uzman Yeterlilik Tezi. google scholar
  • Alp, B ve Yalçın, C (2015), “Türkiye’de Şirketlerin Borç Dolarizasyonu ve Büyüme Performansı”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, N: 15/01. google scholar
  • Aklan N ve Nargeleçekenler M (2010), “Yükümlülük Dolarizasyonu ve Bilanço Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz”, İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, No:43, ss.177-204. google scholar
  • Arellano, C ve Heathcote, J (2010), “Dollarization and Financial Integration”, Journal of Economic Theory, 145(3), 944-973. google scholar
  • Arteta, CO (2005), “Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?”, Topics in Macroeconomics, 5(1), Makale No. 10. google scholar
  • Aysun, U ve Honig, A (2011), “Bankruptcy Costs, Liability Dollarization, and Vulnerability to Sudden Stops”, Journal of Development Economics, 95, 201-211. google scholar
  • Basso, HS, Calvo-Gonzalez, O ve Jurgilas, M (2007), “Financial Dollarization: The Role of Banks and Interest Rates”, ECB Working Paper 748. google scholar
  • Bleakley, H ve Cowan K (2005), “Corporate Dollar Debt and Deprectiations: Much Ado About Nothing?” Inter-American Development Bank Research Department Working Paper No: 532. google scholar
  • Calvo, GA ve Vegh, CA (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries – An Introduction”, IMF Working Paper No. 40. google scholar
  • Calvo, GA (2001), “Capital Markets and Theexchange Rate with Special Reference to The Dollarization Debate in Latin America”, Journal of Money,Credit, and Banking, 33(2), 312– 334. google scholar
  • Calvo, GA ve Reinhart, CM (2002), “Fear of Floating”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2), 379–408. google scholar
  • Calvo, GA vd. (2004), “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects” NBER Working Paper No: 10520. google scholar
  • Canto, V (1985), “Monetary Policy, Dollarization and Parallel Market Exchange Rates: The Case of the Dominican Republic”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 507-521. google scholar
  • Castillo P vd. (2006), “An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach”, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, November. google scholar
  • Çetin, A (2004), “Enflasyon, Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 118, 99-110. google scholar
  • Doğruel F ve Doğruel F (2010), “Türkiye’de Cari Açık: Temel Sorunlar ve Dinamikler”, Küresel Kriz Çerçevesinde Türkiye’nin Cari Açık Sorunsalı, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. google scholar
  • Edwards, SA ve Magenzo, I (2001), “Dollarization, Inflation and Growth”, NBER Working Paper No. 8671. google scholar
  • Eichengreen, B ve Hausmann R (1999), “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Paper. google scholar
  • Hülagü, T ve Yalçın C (2014), “Türkiye’de Firmaların Yabancı Para Borçluluğu ve Kur Riskine İlişkin Mikro Değerlendirmeler” TCMB Ekonomi Notları, No: 13/14. google scholar
  • Levy-Yeyati, E (2006), “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences, Economic Policy”, 21(45), 61-118. google scholar
  • Lin, S ve Ye, H (2010), “Dollarization Does Promote Trade”, Journal of International Money and Finance”, 29(6), 1124-1130. google scholar
  • Metin-Özcan, K ve Us, V (2007), “Dedollarization in Turkey after Decades of Dollarization: A Myth or Reality”, Physica A, 385(1), 292-306. google scholar
  • Özmen E ve Yalçın C (2007), “Küresel Finansal Riskler Karşısında Türkiye’de Reel Sektör Finansal Yapısı ve Borç Dolarizasyonu”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No: 07/06. google scholar
  • Reinhart, C ve Rogoff, K (2004), “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 1-48. google scholar
  • Rennhack, R ve Nozaki, M (2006), “Financial Dollarization in Latin America”, IMF Working Paper No. 06/7. google scholar
  • Sargent, T (2001), “Comment on Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar”, Journal of Money, Credit, Banking, 33, 619–625. google scholar
  • TCMB (2014), EVDS, Reel Sektör İstatistikleri, Arşiv. google scholar
  • Yıldırım, J (2003), “Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money in Five European Countries, Journal of Applied Economics”, 6, 361-383. google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

İncekara, A., Mutlugün, B., & Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2017). The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 4(1), 16-38. https://doi.org/null


AMA

İncekara A, Mutlugün B, Aksöz Yılmaz H. The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth. Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2017;4(1):16-38. https://doi.org/null


ABNT

İncekara, A.; Mutlugün, B.; Aksöz Yılmaz, H. The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, [Publisher Location], v. 4, n. 1, p. 16-38, 2017.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

İncekara, Ahmet, and Betül Mutlugün and Hande Aksöz Yılmaz. 2017. “The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 4, no. 1: 16-38. https://doi.org/null


Chicago: Humanities Style

İncekara, Ahmet, and Betül Mutlugün and Hande Aksöz Yılmaz. “The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 4, no. 1 (Dec. 2023): 16-38. https://doi.org/null


Harvard: Australian Style

İncekara, A & Mutlugün, B & Aksöz Yılmaz, H 2017, 'The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth', Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 16-38, viewed 3 Dec. 2023, https://doi.org/null


Harvard: Author-Date Style

İncekara, A. and Mutlugün, B. and Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2017) ‘The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth’, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 4(1), pp. 16-38. https://doi.org/null (3 Dec. 2023).


MLA

İncekara, Ahmet, and Betül Mutlugün and Hande Aksöz Yılmaz. “The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 4, no. 1, 2017, pp. 16-38. [Database Container], https://doi.org/null


Vancouver

İncekara A, Mutlugün B, Aksöz Yılmaz H. The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth. Journal of Economic Policy Researches [Internet]. 3 Dec. 2023 [cited 3 Dec. 2023];4(1):16-38. Available from: https://doi.org/null doi: null


ISNAD

İncekara, Ahmet - Mutlugün, Betül - Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande. “The Effect of Debt Dollarization on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Growth”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 4/1 (Dec. 2023): 16-38. https://doi.org/null



TIMELINE


Published Online29.01.2017

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.