Research Article


DOI :10.26650/JEPR963438   IUP :10.26650/JEPR963438    Full Text (PDF)

Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Gülşah Şentürk

Today, data accumulated during internet use have become an important source of information for people’s behaviour, issues, and needs, and due to real-time data acquisition, Google search data have become a focal point for researchers. As a result, it has been become more common to use GT data, which have been included in forecasting models for many economic indicators, including unemployment rate forecasting. Therefore, this study aims to determine whether including Google search data in forecasting models can improve the model’s performance in forecasting the unemployment rate in Turkey. In this context, out-ofsample forecasting was performed in this study using seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rates for the period between January 2005 and August 2020 and monthly GT data about the topic of unemployment insurance. In addition, the forecasting performance of ARIMA and ARIMAX methods were compared.

JEL Classification : C53 , E24 , E37
DOI :10.26650/JEPR963438   IUP :10.26650/JEPR963438    Full Text (PDF)

Google Arama Verileri İşsizlik Oranı Tahmin Modelini İyileştirebilir mi? Türkiye için Ampirik Bir Analiz

Gülşah Şentürk

İnternet kullanımı esnasında depolanan verilerin insan davranışları, sorunları ve ihtiyaçları için önemli bir bilgi kaynağı haline geldiği günümüzde, Google arama verileri gerçek zamanlı olarak elde edilmesi nedeniyle araştırmacıların odağı haline gelmektedir. Pek çok ekonomik gösterge için tahmin modellerine dahil edilmeye başlanan Google Trends verilerinin işsizlik oranı tahmininde de kullanılması giderek yaygınlaşmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de işsizlik oranının tahmin edilmesinde Google arama verilerinin öngörü modeline dahil edilmesinin modelin öngörü yeteneğini iyileştirip iyileştirmediğini araştırmaktadır. Ocak 2005’ten Ağustos 2020’ye kadar olan dönem için mevsimsellikten arındırılmış aylık işsizlik oranları ile işsizlik sigortası konusuna dair aylık Google Trends verileri ele alınarak öngörü modeli oluşturulmaktadır. ARIMA ve ARIMAX yöntemleri aracılığıyla yapılan tahminlerin öngörü performansı kıyaslanmaktadır.

JEL Classification : C53 , E24 , E37

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APA

Şentürk, G. (2022). Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 9(2), 229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


AMA

Şentürk G. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2022;9(2):229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


ABNT

Şentürk, G. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, [Publisher Location], v. 9, n. 2, p. 229-244, 2022.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Şentürk, Gülşah,. 2022. “Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9, no. 2: 229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


Chicago: Humanities Style

Şentürk, Gülşah,. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9, no. 2 (Aug. 2022): 229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


Harvard: Australian Style

Şentürk, G 2022, 'Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey', Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 229-244, viewed 17 Aug. 2022, https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Şentürk, G. (2022) ‘Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey’, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 9(2), pp. 229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438 (17 Aug. 2022).


MLA

Şentürk, Gülşah,. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 9, no. 2, 2022, pp. 229-244. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438


Vancouver

Şentürk G. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Researches [Internet]. 17 Aug. 2022 [cited 17 Aug. 2022];9(2):229-244. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438 doi: 10.26650/JEPR963438


ISNAD

Şentürk, Gülşah. Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 9/2 (Aug. 2022): 229-244. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR963438



TIMELINE


Submitted06.07.2021
Accepted16.11.2021
Published Online29.07.2022

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