1. İstanbul Uluslararası Coğrafya Kongresi Bildiri Kitabi
Istanbul’s water management risksHüseyin Turoğlu
The accurate estimation of water demand and the continuous review of the water supply are the most critical aspects of all water management plans. This study investigates the components of Istanbul’s water management plan and will identify potential issues in the underlying assumptions. Trend analysis’ will explain the variance of the actual water supply water potential versus currently estimated and allow for better water supply predictions. As with many other of the world’s megacitys, Istanbul’s water management strategies are complicated by the difficulty to accurately estimate future water demand. Rapid and unmanaged population increases, water consumption of unrecorded economic activities are important uncertainties in estimating Istanbul’s annual water demand. Furthermore, year over year changes in precipitation and temperature values also have had a direct effect on Istanbul’s water potential. Trend analyses of these data from the Sarıyer (17061) and Florya (17636) Meteorological Stations between 1950-2015 clearly show the impacts of global climate change in terms of temperature increases and decrease of precipitation. The Melen Project, bringing water to Istanbul from the Melen river is considered to be main pillar of Istanbul’s water management plans. Unfortunately, the negative effects of climate change are also manifesting themselves negatively on the water potential of Melen Stream and thus Istanbul’s water supply. Data presented in this study shows a steady increase in the addressbased population of water subscribers and the annual amount of water provided to Istanbul. The trends clearly indicate that the need for water will continue to increase year over year. On the other hand, the analysis of the supply data, according to the data the Sarıyer and Florya Meteorological stations, indicate that the water potential of Istanbul is steadily decreasing. The data presented shows that it is doubtful that the Melen Project can be the only solution to an upcoming water shortage in Istanbul and that the water management plan must be updated.