Avrupa Ülkelerinde CO2 Emisyonu Yakınsamasının Fourier Koentegrasyon Testi ile Analizi
Barış Erkan Yazıcı, Nilgün ÇilBu çalışmada yakınsama hipotezi çerçevesinde Avrupa ülkeleri arasında CO2 emisyonunun yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı, Tsong vd. (2016) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier koentegresyon testi ile araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda 1965-2019 dönemi için Avusturya, Belçika, Bulgaristan, Kıbrıs, Çekya, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Fransa, Almanya, Macaristan, İzlanda, İrlanda, İtalya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda, Norveç, Polonya, Portekiz, Romanya, Slovakya, İspanya, İsveç, İsviçre, Türkiye ve İngiltere ülkelerine ve Avrupa’nın ortalama CO2 emisyonuna ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada yakınsama hipotezi kapsamında CO2 emisyonunun yakınsak olup olmadığının Fourier koentegrasyon yöntemi ile sınandığı literatürdeki ilk çalışmadır. Tsong vd. (2016) Fourier Koentegresyon testi sonuçlarına göre Avrupa ülkeleri olan Avusturya, Bulgaristan, Çekya, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda, Norveç, Romanya ve Türkiye ülkelerine ait kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında koentegre ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlardan hareketle söz konusu ülkelerin kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında yakınsamanın varlığı belirlenmiştir. Buna karşın, Kıbrıs, Almanya, Macaristan, İrlanda, İtalya, Polonya, Portekiz, Slovakya, İspanya, İsviçre ve İngiltere’ye ait kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında koentegre ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Dolayısıyla söz konusu ülkeler ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında yakınsamaya rastlanılmamıştır.
Analysis of The Conversion of CO2 Emissions in European Countries with the Fourier Cointegration Test
Barış Erkan Yazıcı, Nilgün ÇilIn this paper, whether the CO2 emissions converge among European countries or not has been inquired within the frame of convergence hypothesis under Fourier cointegration test which was developed by Tsong et al. (2016). In this context, annual data concerning Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and England for the period of 1965-2019 were used with addition of annual data concerning Europe's average CO2 emissions. This paper is the first study in the literature to test whether the CO2 emission is convergent within the frame of the convergence hypothesis under the Fourier cointegration method. As stated in the results of the Tsong et al. (2016) Fourier Cointegration test, a cointegrated relationship was found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Turkey and the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. Based on these results, it has been determined that there is a convergence between the per capita CO2 emissions of these countries and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. On the other hand, no cointegrated relationship has been found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Cyprus, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, UK and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. Therefore, no convergence was determined between these countries and average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe.
Global warming and climate change are among the issues that governments are most interested in as of the 21st century. It has been revealed that greenhouse gases have the most important effect among the causes of global warming, since this subject has been discussed. Greenhouse gases consist of nitrous oxide, methane, water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) gases, and carbon dioxide (CO2) is seen as the most important gas that creates a greenhouse effect among these gases. The emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, which is the result of fossil fuels used in many sectors of the economy, is of great importance in the energy policy process of governments because of this situation.
As a result of the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, which comes out with the combustion of primary fossil fuels, polluting the nature and increasing global warming seriously affects the environmental and climatic conditions of the world. For this reason, carbon dioxide emission per capita (CO2) is used as a variable in almost all scientific research reports in order to determine the environmental pollution levels of countries. Therefore, it is important to know the statinoary characteristics of the per capita CO2 emission variable in order to create policies to be put forward thinking that prevent both environmental pollution and global warming. Because if the CO2 emission variable is in a static structure, the shocks affecting this variable will be temporary. However, if the CO2 emission variable is not in a stable structure, the shocks affecting this variable will be permanent and the variable deviating from the trend value will not return to its old trend.
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the per capita CO2 emission for selected countries of Europe converges to the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. In this context, the second section of the research includes the literature, and the third section includes the econometric method. Empirical findings including the data set are presented in the fourth section. Last section, the results obtained from the study are discussed. In this paper, whether the CO2 emissions converge among European countries or not has been inquired within the frame of convergence hypothesis under Fourier cointegration test which was developed by Tsong et al. (2016). In this context, annual data concerning Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and England for the period of 1965-2019 were used with addition of annual data concerning Europe’s average CO2 emissions. This paper is the first study in the literature to test whether the CO2 emission is convergent within the frame of the convergence hypothesis under the Fourier cointegration method. As stated in the results of the Tsong et al. (2016) Fourier Cointegration test, a cointegrated relationship was found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Turkey and the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. Based on these results, it has been determined that there is a convergence between the per capita CO2 emissions of these countries and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. On the other hand, no cointegrated relationship has been found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Cyprus, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, UK and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. Therefore, no convergence was determined between these countries and average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe.
It can be concluded that there is no problem with the environmental pollution policy for the countries that are close to the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe and that they carry out policies in accordance with the European criteria. Contrary to this situation, it is suggested that for countries that are not convergent to Europe’s average per capita CO2 emissions, they should focus on environmental pollution policies and approach the average by adopting different policies apart from the ones they follow.
