Ekonomik Belirsizliğinin Vergi Takozu Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Örneği
Bülent Diclehan Çadırcı, Mustafa TekdereEkonomik politik belirsizlik doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak birçok makroekonomik değişkeni etkileyebilmektedir. Bu açıdan iktisadipolitik aktörlerin yaptıkları açıklamalarda, aldıkları kararlarda belirsizliği azaltıcı biçimde bilime dayalı ve gerçekçi hareket etmeleri beklenir. Aksi takdirde belirsizlik olgusu sebebiyle iktisadi faaliyetlerdeki maliyetlerin artması kaçınılmaz olmaktadır. Çalışmada bu maliyetlerden biri olan vergi takozu ile ekonomik politik belirsizlik arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. 2000-2020 döneminde 18 OECD ülkesi için yapılan analizde uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler Panel ARDL-PMG modeli ile incelenmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, uzun dönemde ülkeler açısından homojen sonuçlar elde edilmiş ve ekonomik belirsizlikten vergi takozu oranına doğru pozitif bir etkiye ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte değişkenler arasında kısa dönemde herhangi bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Hata düzeltme katsayısının istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve 0 ile -1 arasında olduğu modelde, kısa dönemli dengesizliklerin yaklaşık %11’inin bir sonraki dönemde ortadan kalktığı sonucuna varılmıştır.
The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Tax Wedge: The Case of Selected OECD Countries
Bülent Diclehan Çadırcı, Mustafa TekderePolitico-economic uncertainty is able to directly and indirectly affect many macroeconomic variables. In this respect, politico-economic agents are expected to act scientifically and realistically to reduce uncertainty in their statements and decisions. Otherwise, the costs of economic activities will inevitably increase due to the uncertainty phenomenon. This study analyzes the relationship the tax wedge, one of the costs of economic activities, has with politico-economic uncertainty. The study performs the analysis over 18 OECD countries during the 2000-2020 period and examines the long- and short-term relationships using the panel autoregressive distributed lagpooled mean group (ARDL-PMG) model. According to the empirical results, the study obtained homogeneous results for the countries over the long term and concluded economic policy uncertainty to have a positive effect on the tax wedge rate. However, no short-terms relationship was found between the variables. The error correction coefficient was statistically significant (between 0 and -1) in the model, and approximately 11% of the short-term imbalances were concluded to have disappeared by the next period.
This study examines the effects of politico-economic uncertainty on tax wedge rates. When considering that uncertainty affects the decision-making mechanism of economic agents (especially policy makers), uncertainty is usually expected to affect tax wedge rates. In this context, the research seeks to answer the following question:
• What are the short- and long-term impacts of politico-economic uncertainty on tax wedges and do they differ?
When examining the literature on uncertainty, analyses can be concluded to be found mainly between tax wedge and variables such as unemployment, economic growth, production, informal employment, foreign investments, and productivity of labor force. In addition to individual country analyses, one country was also found to have been compared to cases such as the EU, OECD, and G-7 countries. Research has also occurred on the tax wedge’s impact on female and male employment. The common result obtained from the studies is that uncertainty negatively affects many macro and micro variables such as unemployment, inflation rate, investment level, economic growth and development, credit volume, firm profitability, and productivity. The original contribution from the current study is that it explores the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the tax wedge, which has yet to have been examined in the previous literature.
Many factors such as financial or political crises, epidemics, climatic conditions, and social events can lead to economic uncertainty. This emerging uncertainty causes economic and financial instability, and in this respect, a strong link exists between uncertainty and instability. The resulting instability reduces the likelihood that decisions made about the future can be predicted correctly or that confidence can be had in the economy, as uncertainty deepens and affects instability again in this process. As a result, the economy enters a vicious circle. In addition, the main source of uncertainty in the markets may be policymakers’ lack of clarity in terms of objectives and instruments regarding the monetary and fiscal policies to be implemented and even their inconsistent behaviors with regard to actions and statements.
As for the inflationary gap that may arise under economic uncertainty, lowand fixed-income earners in particular may have to reduce their consumption levels due to the decline in purchasing power. On the other hand, wage earners whose nominal income has increased due to inflation will become exposed to higher brackets in the progressive tax tariff, and thus the average tax and tax wedge rates will increase. As a result, wage earners’ tax wedge rates will increase and the principle of fairness in tax will be damaged when considered within the scope of inflation tax. Fiscal drag will also arise due to inflation. As a result, decreasing demand may prevent economic and employment growth as the tax wedge increases due to real income not increasing.
However, if uncertainty causes a deflationary gap, unemployment will arise due to decreased demand, increased inventories, and falling production levels. In this case, pressure may occur to increase the tax wedge rate on the existing labor force and employers who are trying to finance the cost of unemployment through means such as unemployment insurance premiums. A decrease in wages in the absence of labor union activities may also adversely affect the burden of the tax wedge. As a result, the phenomenon of economic uncertainty caused by vague decisions or explanations policymakers make may adversely affect the tax wedge through economic instability (e.g., inflation, deflation, unemployment, labor inefficiency/loss of productivity, changes in relative prices, and inefficiency in resource distribution).
This study analyzed the cointegration relationship between the tax wedge and uncertainty using annual data for the period of 2000-2020 over a sample of 18 OECD countries whose economic policy uncertainty index had been calculated. The tax wedge rates were accessed from the OECD database, and the economicpolitical uncertainty index was accessed from the website www.policyuncertainty. com, which published data based on Baker et al. (2016). The raw data for the tax wedge comprises the ratio between the amount of tax paid by a single childless worker and the corresponding total labor cost for the employer. The panel ARDL method was used in the analysis with respect to the homogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and unit root results of the panel data.
According to the results from the PMG analysis, in which homogeneous results had been obtained for the countries in the long term, economic policy uncertainty was seen to increase the tax wedge. In the model with a statistically significant error correction coefficient, approximately 11% of the short-term imbalances were concluded to have disappeared during the next period and convergence to have achieved equilibrium in the long-term. However, no relationship was observable between the variables in the short run. In other words, the short- and long-term effects of the model were seen to differ.
Many countries and international organizations (e.g., OECD and EU) try to take measures to reduce the costs caused by the tax wedge. In this way, they aim to reduce unemployment and unregistered employment and to improve the general economic framework. One of the most important steps toward reducing the negative effects of the tax wedge is to reduce uncertainties. In this context, politico-economic actors should behave without compromising their scientificity, realism, transparency, public interest, and justice in terms of the statements and decisions they make.
