Türkiye’de Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin İşgücü Verimliliği ve İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri: ARDL Sınır Testi YaklaşımıFatma Ünlü
Son yıllarda bilgi ve iletişim teknolojileri alanında yaşanan hızlı gelişmeler, uluslararası ekonomik düzenin ve işgücü piyasalarının dönüşüm sürecinde etkin rol üstlenmektedir. Söz konusu teknolojilerin üretim, verimlilik, istihdam gibi makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri araştırmacılar tarafından literatürde sıklıkla tartışılır hale gelmiştir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin işgücü verimliliği ve istihdam üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için, Türkiye’nin 2001- 2020 dönemine ait verileri kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımına ait ekonometrik prosedür takip edilmiştir. Analizlerden elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde BİT kullanımının hem işgücü verimliliği hem de istihdam üzerindeki etkileri istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve negatiftir. Diğer taraftan, analize dahil edilen değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini tespit etmek için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar, BİT kullanımı ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine işaret etmektedir. Benzer durum, istihdam ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi için de geçerlidir.
The Effects of Information and Communication Technologies on Labor Productivity and Employment in Turkiye: The ARDL Bounds Test ApproachFatma Ünlü
Rapid improvements in the field of information and communication technologies have recently played an active role in the transformation of the international economic order and labor markets, with researchers having frequently discussed the effects of these technologies on macroeconomic indicators such as production, productivity, and employment in the literature. In this context, the purpose of this study is to contribute to investigating the effects of information and communication technologies on labor productivity and employment in Turkey. In order to achieve this aim, the econometric procedure of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach was followed using data from Turkey for the period of 2001-2020. According to the empirical findings obtained from the analyses, the long-term effects of ICT use on both labor productivity and employment are statistically significant and negative. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was employed to identify the causality relationships between the variables included in the analyses. The results reveal a bidirectional causality relationship to exist between ICT use and labor productivity as well as between employment and labor productivity.
The ICT sector with its high R&D investments, innovation and employment capacity, high value-added structure, low fixed capital investments, and intermediate goods demand is seen as the fastest-growing sector in both developed and developing countries. In addition to the ICT sector’s high percentage of national income, especially in developed countries, the sector is also known to contribute significantly to productivity increases. Rapid developments in the field of information and communication technologies have recently led to the effects of these technologies on macroeconomic indicators such as productivity and employment being frequently discussed in the literature. Although the results from empirical studies supporting the positive effects of ICTs on labor productivity and countries’ experiences provide strong evidence for arguments that strengthen the existence of a relationship between these two variables, difficulty is had in saying that a general consensus still exists on this issue in the literature. Similarly, this inference is valid for the effects of ICTs on employment. As such, these technologies are able to increase employment in the long run as markets adapt to new technologies while also being able to lead to technological unemployment due to the labor-saving effects of ICTs.
Despite the presence of many studies examining the relationships among ICT usage, labor productivity, and employment in the literature, a limited number of studies are found to have examined these relationships with regard to Turkey. Within the scope of the reviewed literature, no study has been found to have additionally examined the effects of ICT use on labor productivity and employment by modeling these separately based on the ARDL bounds test approach. These two aspects point to the motivation of the study and its potential contributions to the existing literature. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to investigating the effects of information and communication technologies on labor productivity and employment in Turkey. The ICT sector is one of the sectors whose importance has increased in the Turkish economy, especially in recent years. In 2020, the growth rate of the ICT sector increased by 22% compared to 2019 to a size of 26.9 billion dollars. The ICT sector had an annual average growth rate of 15% in the 2016-2020 period, during which employment in this sector had increased by 7% and ICT exports by 31%. In the last five years, investments in the sector, whose growth trend is approximately 10%, increased by 30%. In this context, the econometric procedure for the ARDL bounds test was followed using ICT usage, labor productivity, and employment rate data in Turkey for the period of 2001-2020. Afterward, the study examined the causality relationships between the variables using the Toda-Yamamoto test.
The main findings obtained from the analyses show ICT use to have had a statistically significant and negative impact on labor productivity. Similarly, the impact of ICT use on employment was also negative, with the values for both models’ coefficients being quite small. Meanwhile, a bidirectional causality relationship exists between ICT use and labor productivity, as well as between employment and labor productivity. However, no causal relationship was found between ICT use and employment. Consequently, the impact of ICT use on labor productivity and employment in Turkey is negative, but the coefficients are negligibly small. The possible reasons for ICTs’ negative effects on labor productivity and employment can be explained through inadequate complementary investments and the delayed realization of positive effects in the long run. This is because the temporary negative effects of these labor-saving technologies on employment will eventually be eliminated by realizing complementary ICT investments and creating new job opportunities. In addition, ICT’s impact on labor productivity will also become positive as ICT use increases in parallel with the increase in the workforce’s technological skills and abilities over time, with this effect also tending to increase more.