Derleme


DOI :10.26650/JARHS2021-986141   IUP :10.26650/JARHS2021-986141    Tam Metin (PDF)

COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri

Pınar Okyay

Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün (DSÖ) 11 Mart 2020 tarihindeki pandemi ilanından sonra, tüm dünyada yüksek olgu ve ölüm sayıları bildirilmiştir. 2020 yılında COVID-19, ölüm nedenleri arasında altıncı sırayı almıştır. Bu küresel kriz, bir sağlık krizinden çok daha fazlası, insani, ekonomik ve sosyal bir krizdir. Salgını bitirebilmek için en önemli aracımız aşı ve onun sağlayabileceği toplum bağışıklığıdır. Yeni varyantlar toplum bağışıklığı denklemini değiştirebilir. Ayrıca aşı uygulamasının düzensiz ve kötü dağılımı ile aşılama sonrası değişen insan davranışı da diğer önemli değiştirici nedenlerdir. Aşı tereddüdü ve infodemi önemli tehditlerdir. Pandemi, bu değişkenlerin durumuna göre farklı senaryolarla ilerleyebilir. Bu senaryolar virüsün tamamen ortadan kaldırılmasından, yeni bir varyantla tüm aşı planlamalarının yenilenmesine kadar farklı bir yelpazede olabilir. Pandemi ile birlikte insanlığın asıl sorununun eşitsizlikler ve dünyadaki diğer canlı ve cansız sistemler ile birlikte yaşanmasındaki sorunlar olduğu görülmüştür. 

Anahtar Kelimeler: COVID-19PandemiSARS-CoV-2Öngörüler
DOI :10.26650/JARHS2021-986141   IUP :10.26650/JARHS2021-986141    Tam Metin (PDF)

Current Situation and Future Prospects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Pınar Okyay

After the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the high numbers of cases and deaths had been reported over the world. In 2020, COVID-19 ranked sixth among the causes of death. This global crisis is much more than a health crisis, a humanitarian, economic, and social crisis. Our most important tool to end the epidemic is the vaccine and the herd immunity it can provide. New variants could change the herd immunity equation. The uneven and fair distribution of vaccine administration and the changing human behavior after vaccination are other significant modifiers. Vaccine hesitancy and infodemic are other main threats. The pandemic may progress with different scenarios, depending on the status of these variables. These scenarios can range from the complete eradication of the virus to the renewal of all vaccination plans with a new variant. With the pandemic, it is seen that the main problem of humanity is inequalities and the problem of living together with other living and non-living systems in the world.

Anahtar Kelimeler: COVID-19PandemicsSARS-CoV-2Forecasting

PDF Görünüm

Referanslar

  • 1. Worldometer. Covid-19 Coronavırus Pandemıc. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/. Accessed 22nd May 2021 google scholar
  • 2. World Health Statistics. Monitoring Health for the SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva: World Health Organization: 2021. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. Available from: URL: https://www.who.int/data/gho/ publications/world-health-statistics. google scholar
  • 3. United Nations. Everyone Included: Social Impact of COVID-19. Available from: https:// www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/everyone-included-covid-19. Accessed 22nd May 2021 google scholar
  • 4. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, Bhattacharya J. Great Barrington Declaration. 2020 Oct. Available from: URL: https://gbdeclaration.org/.Accessed 2nd June 2021 google scholar
  • 5. John Snow Memorandum. World Health Network Emergency Summit. The Delta Variant, Children and Schools: We Need To Protect Our Children & Communities. 2021 Sept. (cited 2021 Sept 3): Available from: URL: https://www. johnsnowmemo.com/. Accessed 2nd June 2021 google scholar
  • 6. Our World in Data. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deaths . Available from: https://ourworldindata. org/covid-deaths. Accessed 2nd January 2021 google scholar
  • 7. Guerra FM, Bolotin S, Lim G, Heffernan J, Deeks SL, Li Y, et al. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of measles: a systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis 2017;17(12):e420-8. google scholar
  • 8. Viceconte G, Petrosillo N. Covid-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum? Infect Dis Rep 2020;12(1):8516. google scholar
  • 9. Aschwanden C. Five reasons why Covid herd immunity is probably impossible. Nature 2021;591(7851):520-2. google scholar
  • 10. Breuninger K. CNBC. U.S. to spend $1.7 billion tracking Covid variants as dangerous new strains make up half of all cases. Available from: https:// www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/covid-variants-biden-admin-spending-1point7-billion-tracking-new-strains.html%0A. Accessed 1st May 2021 google scholar
  • 11. Krause PR, Fleming TR, Longini IM, Peto R, Briand S, Heymann DL et al. SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccines. N Engl J Med 2021;385(2):179-86. google scholar
  • 12. Nasreen S, Chung H, He S, Brown KA, Gubbay JB, Buchan SA et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against variants of concern in Ontario, Canada. (cited 2021 July 16): Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/ content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.28.2125942 0. Accessed 1st May 2021. google scholar
  • 13. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Update on Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccine Considerations. (cited 2021 May 12): Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/ acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-05-12/10-Covid-Scobie-508.pdf. Accessed 18th May 2021 google scholar
  • 14. Pfizer. Pfızer and Bıontech Inıtıate A Study As Part of Broad Development Plan To Evaluate Covid-19 Booster and New Vaccıne Varıants. (cited 2021 February 25): Available from: https:// www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-initiate-study-part-broad-development%0A.Accessed 10th June2021 google scholar
  • 15. Mascola JR, Graham BS, Fauci AS. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Variants—Tackling a Moving Target. JAMA 2021;325(13):1261-62. google scholar
  • 16. Korkmaz E, Balmert SC, Sumpter TL, Carey CD, Erdos G, Falo LD. Microarray patches enable the development of skin-targeted vaccines against Covid-19. Adv Drug Deliv Rev 2021;171:164-86. google scholar
  • 17. Guglielmi G. The explosion of new coronavirus tests that could help to end the pandemic. Nature 2020;583(7817):506-9. google scholar
  • 18. World Health Organization,Ten threats to global health in 2019. Available from: https://www. who.int/news-room/spotlight/ten-threats-to-global-health-in-2019.Accessed 18th May 2021 google scholar
  • 19. World Health Organization. Managing the COVID-19 infodemic: Promoting healthy behaviours and mitigating the harm from misinformation and disinformation. Available from: https://www.who.int/news/ item/23-09-2020-managing-the-covid-19-infodemic-promoting-healthy-behaviours-and-mitigating-the-harm-from-misinformation-and-disinformation. Accessed 2nd May 2021 google scholar
  • 20. Ghebreyesus TA. I Run the W.H.O., and I Know That Rich Countries Must Make a Choice. (cited 2021 April 22): Available from: https://www. nytimes.com/2021/04/22/opinion/who-covid-vaccines.html. google scholar
  • 21. World Health Organization, COVAX Working for global equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. Available from: https://www.who.int/ initiatives/act-accelerator/covax. Accessed 10th May 2021 google scholar
  • 22. Gu Y. Path to Normality - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections. (cited 2021 April 26): Available from: https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/#comparison-projected-vs-actual%0A. Accessed 19th June 2021 google scholar
  • 23. Lewis R. Are we hurtling or hurdling towards herd ımmunity for Covid-19?. (cited 2021 January 28): Available from: https://dnascience. plos.org/2021/01/28/are-we-hurtling-or-hurdling-towards-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/ Accessed 19th May 2021. google scholar
  • 24. World Economic Forum. The Great Reset. Available from: https://www.weforum.org/ great-reset. Accessed 19th June 2021 google scholar
  • 25. Chomsky and Pollin: A global green new deal ıs the only way to avert disaster.(cited 2021 January 7): Available from: https://chomsky. info/20210107/. Accessed 19th May2021 google scholar
  • 26. Forman R, Atun R, McKee M, Mossialos E. 12 Lessons learned from the management of the coronavirus pandemic. Health Policy 2020;124(6):577-80. google scholar
  • 27. Jasanoff S, Hilgartner S, James W, White L. Learnıng From Covid-19: A 23-nation comparative study of covıd-19 response, with lessons for the future of public health. Available from: https://iserp.columbia.edu/sites/default/ files/National Comparative Study Synthesis Paper.pdf. Accessed 19th May 2021. google scholar

Atıflar

Biçimlendirilmiş bir atıfı kopyalayıp yapıştırın veya seçtiğiniz biçimde dışa aktarmak için seçeneklerden birini kullanın


DIŞA AKTAR



APA

Okyay, P. (2021). COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri. Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


AMA

Okyay P. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri. Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi. 2021;4(1):97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


ABNT

Okyay, P. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri. Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi, [Publisher Location], v. 4, n. 1, p. 97-103, 2021.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Okyay, Pınar,. 2021. “COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri.” Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi 4, no. 1: 97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


Chicago: Humanities Style

Okyay, Pınar,. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri.” Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi 4, no. 1 (May. 2022): 97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


Harvard: Australian Style

Okyay, P 2021, 'COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri', Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 97-103, viewed 26 May. 2022, https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Okyay, P. (2021) ‘COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri’, Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), pp. 97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141 (26 May. 2022).


MLA

Okyay, Pınar,. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri.” Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 1, 2021, pp. 97-103. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


Vancouver

Okyay P. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri. Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi [Internet]. 26 May. 2022 [cited 26 May. 2022];4(1):97-103. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141 doi: 10.26650/JARHS2021-986141


ISNAD

Okyay, Pınar. COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri”. Sağlık Bilimlerinde İleri Araştırmalar Dergisi 4/1 (May. 2022): 97-103. https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141



ZAMAN ÇİZELGESİ


Gönderim23.08.2021
Kabul24.09.2021
Çevrimiçi Yayınlanma03.11.2021

LİSANS


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


PAYLAŞ




İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, uluslararası yayıncılık standartları ve etiğine uygun olarak, yüksek kalitede bilimsel dergi ve kitapların yayınlanmasıyla giderek artan bilimsel bilginin yayılmasına katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları açık erişimli, ticari olmayan, bilimsel yayıncılığı takip etmektedir.