Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye ÖrneğiOrhan Şanlı, Osman Peker
Bu çalışmada, üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE), kur, faiz ve gelirin konut satışlarına etkisi Türkiye örneğinde incelenmiştir. 2013:M1-2021:M10 dönemini kapsayan analiz Sınır Testi (ARDL) yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulgularına göre, ÜFE ve kurlar konut satışlarını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Buna göre ÜFE %10 arttığında konut satışları %7 oranında artmaktadır. Kurlar %10 arttığında ise konut satışları %4 oranında artmaktadır. Konut kredi faiz oranları ise beklendiği gibi konut satışlarını negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Konut kredi faiz oranları %10 arttığında konut satışları %0.1 oranında azalmaktadır.
Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of TurkiyeOrhan Şanlı, Osman Peker
In this study, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), exchange rate, interest, and income on house sales were examined in the case of Turkey. The study was conducted using the Boundary Test (ARDL) method of analysis and spanned the period 2013:M1-2021:M10. According to the empirical findings of the study, PPI and exchange rates have a positive effect on house sales. As a result, when PPI increases by 10%, house sales rise by 7%. House sales increase by 4% when exchange rates rise by 10%. Housing loan interest rates, on the other hand, have a negative impact on housing sales, as expected. House sales fall by 0.1% when mortgage interest rates rise by 10%. These findings indicate that house sales in Turkey are impacted by inflation and exchange rates. This situation, which contradicts the law of demand, stems from the fact that purchasing a house in Turkey is regarded as a significant investment and an anti-inflationary tool. Furthermore, despite the inflationary pressures caused by the exchange rate, foreigners play an important role in the continuation of housing sales and prices.
The housing market is due to its interdependence with many other sectors. It is one of the key indicators that influence household consumption and saving decisions, as well as economic growth, employment, domestic demand volume, and other similar variables. It is aimed, particularly during periods of economic contraction, to revitalize the economy in the housing market by implementing expansionary monetary policies. This situation reveals that the market in question is important in terms of the economic outlook and economic policies. An expansionary monetary policy has a two-way effect on the housing market. First, while the housing demand is being warned; in the following stage, housing sales prices may rise. The first effect occurs more rapidly, while the second effect is dependent on housing stock. In cases where housing projects are not sufficient, that is, the low housing supply leads to an upward movement in prices with increasing demand. The sensitivity of the housing sector to monetary policy arises not only from a need but also from the fact that it is an investment tool. After meeting their mandatory housing needs, households can request housing in order to evaluate their savings. However, when the need to acquire a more luxurious residence is considered, the demand for housing can be said to be constant.
The high rate of population growth in Turkey, the acceleration of urbanization, national and international migration, and changes in housing consumption habits have all had significant consequences on housing demand. In addition to meeting the basic housing needs, the housing sector’s transformation into a high-return investment tool has accelerated supply, demand, and price increases (Coşkun, 2016, p. 202). Following the 2001 crisis, the construction sector in Turkey began to develop rapidly as a result of the global expansionary policies that began and the local reformist policies that followed. With the acceleration of domestic and international construction activities, low housing loan interest rates, easy access to cheap external financial resources, and the socio-cultural perspective on housing, a new active period has begun in the housing sector (Çevik, 2013, p. 16).
As a result of these developments, monetary policy aided the housing sector. For this purpose, low-interest loan policies and TOKI-supported housing projects gained momentum. Housing and construction activities in Turkey have accelerated as a result of TOKI’s longterm and low-interest payment policies, campaigns, and practices that enable low-income groups to become homeowners, as well as state bank practices that support housing purchases. Moreover, the low exchange rates for many years and the increase in foreign direct investments and capital inflows reduced construction costs as well as led to an abundance of credit. However, the negative conditions created by the pandemic, exchange rate pressure, and similar reasons led to an increase in housing costs and prices. Monetary policy was implemented during this process to reduce housing loan costs in order to support the construction and housing sectors, but the supply-demand balance deteriorated due to the aforementioned adverse conditions. In this study, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), exchange rate, interest, and income on house sales were examined in the case of Turkey. The study was carried out using the Boundary Test (ARDL) method of analysis and covered the years 2013:M1-2021:M10. According to the empirical findings of the study, PPI and exchange rates positively affect house sales. Accordingly, when PPI increases by 10%, house sales increase by 7%. Housing sales increase by 4% when exchange rates increase by 10%. Housing loan interest rates, on the other hand, have a negative impact on housing sales, as expected. When housing loan interest rates increase by 10%, house sales decrease by 0.1%. These results show that house sales in Turkey are sensitive to inflation and exchange rates. This situation, which contradicts the law of demand, stems from the fact that purchasing a home in Turkey is regarded as a significant investment and an antiinflationary tool. Furthermore, the demand for housing by foreigners plays an important role in the continuation of housing sales and prices, despite the inflationary pressures stemming from the exchange rate. These findings indicate that exchange rate fluctuations make housing demand in Turkey more enticing to foreigners.