Mekânsal ve Zamansal Perspektiften Ankara'daki Trafik Kazaları: Ölümlü ve Yaralanmalı Olayların Analizi
Seçkin Fidan, Mutlu Yılmaz, Ersin Ateş, Merve Altundal ÖncüTrafik kazaları, insan yaşamına yönelik önemli tehditlere ve sosyo-ekonomik etkilere yol açan yaygın bir küresel sorundur. Trafik kazaları, nüfus ve araç sayısındaki artış nedeniyle daha yaygın hale gelmekte ve bu nedenle insan hayatı için ciddi tehditler oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 2013-2020 yılları arasında Ankara ilinde meydana gelen trafik kazalarının mekânsal ve zamansal niteliğini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, trafik kazalarının zamansal özelliklerini analiz etmek için kazaların yıllık, aylık, günlük ve saatlik dağılımı incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, mekânsal özellikleri analiz etmek için optimize edilmiş sıcak nokta analizi ve mekânsal-zamansal özellikleri ortaya koymak için gelişen sıcak nokta analizi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, kaza sayılarının 2018'e kadar arttığını, ancak son iki yılda belirgin bir azalma gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle 2020'deki düşüşün, COVID-19 salgınıyla yakından ilişkili olduğu vurgulanmaktadır. Ayrıca, yaz aylarında, hafta sonlarında, gece ve sabah saatlerinde ölümlü kazaların sayısında bir artış görülmektedir. Trafik kazalarının ve yaralanmaların mekânsal olarak şehir merkezinde, ölümlü kazaların ise sadece şehir merkezinde değil, aynı zamanda çevre ilçe ve illerle ulaşımı sağlayan karayollarında da kümelendiği tespit edilmiştir. Mekânsal-zamansal dağılım ise bu bölgelerde farklı sıcak nokta desenleri ile artan eğilimleri göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, kazanın türüne ve trafik aktörlerine göre değişen zamansal ve mekânsal desenlerin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma, Ankara'daki trafik kazalarının azaltılmasına yönelik etkili yol güvenliği politikalarının belirlenmesinde yerel ve ulusal kurumlara rehberlik etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Traffic Accidents in Ankara (Turkey) from a Spatiotemporal Perspective: Analysis of Fatalities and Injuries
Seçkin Fidan, Mutlu Yılmaz, Ersin Ateş, Merve Altundal ÖncüTraffic accidents are a widespread global problem causing significant threats to human life and socioeconomic impacts. Traffic accidents are becoming more common due to the increase in population and the number of vehicles and therefore pose severe threats to human life. This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic accidents that occurred in Ankara between 2013 and 2020. In this context, the annual, monthly, daily, and hourly distribution of accidents were investigated to analyse the temporal characteristics of traffic accidents. In addition, Optimised Hot Spot Analysis was used to analyse the spatial characteristics, and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis was used to reveal spatiotemporal characteristics. The results reveal that the number of accidents increased until 2018 but showed a marked decrease in the last two years. It is emphasised that the decrease, especially in 2020, is closely related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, there is an increase in the number of fatal accidents during the summer months, weekends, and night and morning hours. Traffic accidents and injuries are spatially clustered in the city centre, while fatal accidents are clustered not only in the city centre but also on the highways that provide access to the surrounding districts and provinces. The spatiotemporal distribution shows increasing trends with different hot spot patterns in these regions. The obtained results reveal that there are temporal and spatial patterns that vary according to the type of accident and traffic actors. This study guides local and national institutions in determining effective road safety policies to reduce traffic accidents in Ankara.
Traffic accidents are a major problem, causing the death and injury of thousands of people and significant economic costs. This research aims to examine the temporal and spatial distribution of fatal and injury-causing traffic accidents in Ankara, considering the traffic actors involved, to identify regions where accidents frequently occur and specific time intervals. In addition, it focuses on analysing accidents that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to understand potential changes during this period. The findings provide valuable insights to guide decision makers in improving traffic safety measures and reducing accidents.
For this purpose, traffic accident data from the Ankara province spanning the years 2013 to 2020 were utilised. Initially, temporal distribution analyses were conducted. In this context, the annual, monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly distribution of the number of accidents and fatalities and injuries of traffic actors (drivers, pedestrians, and passengers) were examined. In the second stage, Optimised Hot Spot Analysis was employed for spatial distribution analysis. In the final stage, Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, which considers both temporal and spatial distribution, was utilised.
The findings of the study indicate an increasing trend in traffic accidents until 2018, followed by a declining trend after 2018. In particular, the number of accidents in 2020 (n: 8,738) fell below the average (n: 10,682). A decreasing trend in traffic accidents has been observed globally and in Turkey recently. However, the association between the 2020 decrease and the COVID-19 pandemic is more robustly supported. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, marked by partial restrictions in March and subsequent lockdowns in April and May, led to a significant decrease in traffic accidents. This reduction was attributed to decreased public transportation usage and changes in drivers’ travel habits, which directly contributed to the observed decline in accidents. The time series captures a notable decrease during the COVID-19 quarantine period. Accident numbers start decreasing in March, reaching a minimum in April and May. Starting in June, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, accidents begin to increase, eventually returning to pre-quarantine levels.
Between May and October, a significant increase in traffic accidents was observed, particularly with a rise in fatal accidents during the summer. Additionally, traffic accidents and fatalities occur more frequently on weekends. While the intensity of traffic accidents is generally highest in morning in evening, fatal accidents tend to increase during nighttime and peak in the early morning hours. Moreover, driver fatalities usually rise from nighttime in early morning, whereas passenger fatalities only increase in the early morning hours. These results highlight the temporal variations in both traffic accidents and fatalities.
Optimised Hot Spot Analysis reveals a spatial clustering of traffic accidents and injuries in the city centre at a confidence level of 99%. However, fatal traffic accidents exhibit a distinct spatial distribution. Fatal accidents not only cluster in the city centre but also form prominent hot spot patterns along the highways connecting the surrounding districts and provinces. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of fatalities among traffic actors varies, encompassing both the city centre and the highways outside the city. Emerging hot spot analysis revealed distinct spatial clustering patterns in both the city centre and the surrounding highways. Traffic accidents tend to concentrate on the city centre, with decreasing hot spots, particularly in the eastern region, and intensifying hot spots in the western region. Trend analysis indicates a rising trend, especially in the west of the city centre, surrounding districts, and highways. Irregular, consecutive, and novel hot spot patterns have been identified for traffic accidents resulting in fatalities, with irregular hot spots prevailing in both the city centre and surrounding highways.
The results emphasise that traffic accidents and fatalities do not exhibit a uniform distribution but rather display temporal and spatial variations based on the type of accident and the traffic actors involved. The findings of this study highlight the importance of understanding these temporal and spatial differences, guiding the development of effective safety policies aimed at addressing traffic accidents.