Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Yaşanan Ekonomik Krizler ile İç-Dış Borçlanma İlişkisi
Cansu Aydın, Mehmet CuralTürkiye, 1980 yılı ve sonrasında 1994, 2001 ve 2008 yıllarında ekonomik kriz yaşamıştır. Bu ekonomik krizler, nedenleri ve sonuçları itibariyle farklılık arz etmektedir. Bununla birlikte Türkiye’de iç ve dış borçlanma, bu ekonomik krizlerin öncesinde ve ekonomik kriz yıllarında ekonomik istikrarsızlıkların artışında etkili olmuştur. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1994, 2001 ve 2008 yıllarında yaşanan ekonomik krizler ile iç ve dış borçların gelişimi ele alınmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada Türkiye’de 1980 sonrasındaki ekonomik krizlerden önceki iki yıl, ekonomik kriz yılı ve ekonomik krizden sonraki iki yıl olmak üzere toplam beş yıllık bir dönem ele alınmıştır. Ekonomik krizler ile iç ve dış borçlanma arasındaki ilişki, borçlanma miktarı, toplam borçlanma içindeki payı ve borç yükü değişkenleriyle değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de yaşanan 1994, 2001 ve 2008 ekonomik krizlerin öncesinde, kriz yıllarında ve sonrasındaki iç ve dış borç göstergelerinin seyrinin ortaklaşıp ortaklaşmadığının saptanmasıdır. Değerlendirmelere göre, ele alınan ekonomik kriz yıllarının üçünde kriz öncesinde iç ve dış borç miktarı ve dış borçların toplam borçlanma içindeki payı artmıştır. Ekonomik kriz yılı ve sonraki yıllarda ele alınan göstergelere ilişkin benzer eğilimler görülmemiştir. Bu durum ekonomik krizler öncesinde borçların sürdürülemez olduğunun bir göstergesidir.
The Relationship Between Economic Crises and DomesticExternal Borrowing After 1980 in Turkey
Cansu Aydın, Mehmet CuralTurkey experienced economic crises in 1980, 1994, 2001, and 2008. Each crisis had different causes and consequences; however, domestic and external borrowing had a common effect of rising instability before and during each of these crises. This study investigates economic crises and the trajectory of domestic and external debts in Turkey in 1994, 2001, and 2008, analyzing each economic crisis period in five-year episodes, including two years prior to the crisis, the year of the crisis, and two years following the crisis. The relationship between economic crises and domestic and external debt is evaluated according to the share of borrowing to total borrowing and debt burden variables. The study seeks to determine whether the trajectories of domestic and external debt indicators share similar behaviors before, during, and after the 1994, 2001, and 2008 economic crises in Turkey. The findings indicate that the amount of domestic and foreign debt, and the share of external debt to total borrowing increased in the year prior to each economic crises. Similar trends were not observed in the year of the economic crises or in the following two years. This is an indication that the debts were unsustainable prior to the economic crisis. Hence, the sustainability of debts is critical for tackling the economic crisis.
Following the 1980 economic crisis, the Turkish economy faced economic crises in 1994, 2001, and 2008. Budget deficits and account balances resulted in the 1994 crisis, followed by political instability in 1995–1999. Resulting from rising inflation, public deficits, and debts, and reverberations of the effects of the crisis in other developing countries, Turkey faced another economic crisis in 2001. Although the 2008 global financial crisis was of international origin, it negatively affected Turkey in terms of exports, employment, economic growth, and borrowing. Before and during the economic crisis in Turkey, domestic and foreign borrowing increased instabilities. In this context, this study investigates these economic crises in Turkey in relation to the trajectory of domestic and foreign debts. The relationship between economic crises and the development of domestic and foreign debts are analyzed in five-year episodes, including two years prior to the crisis, the year of the crises, and two years following the crisis. The relationship between economic crises and domestic and external debt is evaluated according to the share of borrowing to total borrowing and debt burden variables. The study seeks to elicit practical insights for the prediction of future economic and/or debt crises based on the development of domestic and foreign debts before such crises.
The frequency of economic crises in recent years has led to expanded definitions of economic crisis in the literature. Although the types and causes of crises differ, they can generally be attributed to two types, real sector crises and financial crises, and are categorized into financial, banking, foreign debt, currency/currency, and stock market crises. Although there is more than one definition of economic crisis, such crises generate economic instability in national economies, decrease growth rates, and negatively impact productivity. In addition, circumstances such as a declining GDP, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment are considered to be indicators of economic crises.
The findings indicate that the amount of domestic and foreign debt increased before the 1994 economic crisis, decreased in the year of the economic crisis, and began to rise in 1995. The share of domestic debt in total debt decreased prior to the 1994 economic crisis and rose again following the economic crisis. Both internal and external debt burdens rose before and during the 1994 economic crisis and decreased in the post-crisis year.
Before the 2001 economic crisis, the amount of domestic and foreign debt rose. In the year during the economic crisis, foreign borrowing decreased by about $5 billion and then rose again, and the amount of domestic debt increased from $58 billion to $99 billion. During and after the economic crisis, domestic borrowing remained flat and stable, whereas the share of external debt in total borrowing increased both before and after the 2001 crisis, decreasing in the year of the economic crisis. While the external debt burden increased before the 2001 crisis, the domestic debt burden remained constant. In the year during the economic crisis, both domestic and foreign debt burden increased significantly, and after the economic crisis, both internal and external debt burden declined.
Before the 2008 global financial crisis and during the crisis year, the amount of domestic and foreign debt rose, and external debt rose again in the following year, although it was lower than the previous amount. Before 2008, the share of external debt in total debt increased, and remained stable following the crisis. Before the 2008 crisis and during the crisis year, the share of domestic and foreign debt in GDP declined, rising in 2009, and fell again in the following year.
In summary, the three economic crisis years present similar trends, revealing that the amount of domestic and foreign debt rose prior to the crisis and the share of external debt in total borrowing also increased. Similar trends were not observed during the year of the economic crisis or in subsequent years. This may be related to the fact that the causes, dimensions, and results of the economic crises differ. It can be asserted that increases in domestic and foreign borrowing and in external debt in total borrowing are among the symptoms or causes of economic crises. As one of the identified symptoms or causes of economic crises is rising domestic and foreign borrowing, it is evident that borrowing was unsustainable in these years. For this reason, one strategic approach to avoid economic crises is to ensure and protection of the stability and sustainability of debts.
