Aquifer Security and the Place of the Aquifer in International Conflicts
Tarık DemirIt is a well-established fact that water is an essential resource for human survival. Consequently, addressing issues related to water resource security and ensuring access to clean water is a top priority for both domestic and foreign policies of nations. Essentially, the availability of clean water is threatened by factors like climate change and human activities. This has led to discussions about the significance of aquifer resources, which hold abundant clean water, in the realm of international relations. Historical analysis reveals that states have often competed for control over aquifer resources in various parts of the world. This study focuses on the Brahmaputra and Guarani aquifer systems in South Asia and South America, respectively, which are among the most significant aquifer resources. By examining the foreign policy approaches of states toward these aquifer systems, it is observed that while conflicts have arisen over the Brahmaputra aquifer system, a shift toward cooperative strategies has occurred over time regarding the Guarani Aquifer System, following the principles of the Regional Security Complex Theory. The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between specific aquifer systems and the concept of conflict through qualitative research methods.
Akifer Güvenliği ve Uluslararası Çatışmalarda Akiferlerin Yeri
Tarık DemirSuyun insanoğlu için yaşamsal önemde bir kaynak olduğu yadsınamaz bir gerçekliktir. Aynı şekilde bu gerçeklik göz önünde bulundurulduğunda su kaynaklarının güvenliği ve temiz su kaynaklarına erişimin sağlanması konularının devletlerin iç ve dış politikalarının en önemli gündem maddesini oluşturduğu görülmektedir. Bir başka deyişle gerek iklim değişikliği gerekse insan kaynaklı nedenlerden ötürü temiz su kaynaklarının tehdit altında olduğu görülmektedir. Bu meyanda bu çalışmada temiz su kaynakları bakımından zengin olan akifer kaynaklarının uluslararası ilişkilerdeki yerine temas edilmiştir. Siyasi tarihe bakıldığında dünyanın birçok farklı bölgesinde akifer kaynaklarına sahip olabilmek amacıyla devletlerin birbirleriyle mücadele içerisinde oldukları görülmektedir. Çalışmada önemli akifer kaynakları arasında yer alan Güney Asya ve Güney Amerika bölgelerinde bulunan Brahmaputra ve Guarani akifer sistemleri incelenmeye tabi tutulmuştur. Devletlerin bu akifer sistemlerine yönelik dış politika stratejilerine bakıldığında Brahmaputra akifer sistemi üzerinde çatışmanın; buna karşın Guarani akifer sistemi üzerinde ise her ne kadar başlangıçta bir çatışma stratejisi izlenmiş olsa da zamanla Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi Teorisi çerçevesinde iş birliğine dönük bir dış politika stratejisi izledikleri görülmektedir. Çalışmada belli başlı akifer sistemleri ile çatışma kavramı arasında nasıl bir ilişki olduğu niteliksel araştırma yöntemleri kullanılmak suretiyle ortaya koyulması çalışılmıştır.
Aquifers, known as “free groundwater” in Turkish, are permeable rock formations containing water. Their porous nature renders aquifers abundant in water resources. However, changes in land use and cover affect the characteristics of aquifer’s streams, rivers, and recharge zones, influencing both the availability and quality of water resources. Presently, freshwater resources, crucial for human survival, face threats due to human activities and climate change induced by these activities. As engineering and technical capabilities continue to advance, humanity’s options for transforming water systems and supply are expanding. Among these options, strategically significant aquifer resources emerge as a key alternative for accessing clean water resources. Consequently, regions experiencing water scarcity may become potential areas of conflict in the future, thereby heightening the strategic importance and necessity of aquifers in water policy. In response, policymakers in water-scarce regions prioritize increasing technical capacity to utilize aquifer resources for clean water provision. This underscores the sufficiency of aquifers as underground water reserves to fulfill both current and future agricultural and drinking water needs in many regions. Furthermore, the storage of soil moisture and surface water in shallow depressions contributes significantly to meeting current demands, thus reducing reliance on surface water resources.
Aquifers, shared by many countries akin to transboundary rivers and lakes, are sources of contemporary international conflicts and issues, reminiscent of historical occurrences. While not as widely recognized the public as conflicts stemming from other transboundary water resources, conflicts related to aquifers have roots tracing back to ancient times. In fact, conflicts over aquifers in various regions of America and Asia have persisted for many years. Notably, conflicts have arisen from aquifer systems linked to rivers such as the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Ganges in Asia and the Parana (Guarani), Rio Grande, and Colorado in America. Presently, similar to the past, the potential for conflict remains high in river basins and associated aquifers in South Asia and South America. Particularly, the regions with the greatest conflict potential in these geographies are those housing the Brahmaputra and Guarani river basins and their respective aquifer systems. Consequently, an analysis was conducted to understand the role of the Brahmaputra and Guarani basins and aquifer systems in international conflicts.
Water, being a limited natural resource, holds immense importance for ensuring food security and promoting sustainable development. This significance is particularly evidence for countries like India, China, and others. For instance, India, despite having over 18% of the global population and 2.4% of the world’s land area, possesses only 4% of renewable water resources. Moreover, the foreseeable increase in water-related conflicts among nations is attributed to factors such as climate change induced floods, drought, population growth, and the necessity to cater to the escalating demands of rapidly developing nations. Similarly, China faces similar challenges regarding water security, with internal pressures to effectively manage water resources to meet national requirements. The geopolitical dynamics of regions like Arunachal Pradesh, situated within the Brahmaputra/Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, holds critical importance for both India and China. Issues surrounding water sharing, extending to include aquifer security, have contributed to border disputes in the region. India vehemently rejects all of China’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh, while China continues to assert its claims, causing persistent tensions with India over the area.
The Guarani Aquifer System stretches across central–western Brazil, Paraguay, and southeastern and southern regions of Brazil, northeastern Argentina, as well as central and western Uruguay. Covering an area of approximately 1.2 million km2 , this aquifer system is home to an estimated 15 million people, with nearly 70% residing in Brazil. With a total recharge area of 150,000 km2 and an average thickness of 250 m, it reaches a maximum thickness of 800 m, with depth ranging from near zero at the surface areas along the Guarani border (Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) to over 1,000 m below the surface at its center. The Guarani Aquifer System receives an average annual recharge of 160 km3 and is estimated to contain around 40,000 km3 of fresh water based on hydrogeological studies. Approximately 90% of this freshwater volume is deemed potable. Notably, the water reserves of the Guarani Aquifer System are equivalent to more than 125 years’ worth of total water flow in the Paraná River. It is projected that the aquifer system can sustainably provide water for 360 million people at a rate of 300 L/day per person over a span of 100 years.
