The illegitimate separatist authority, which maintained its de facto existence for 30 years under the shadow of the Armenian occupation in Karabakh, has been at the very center of the Russia-Armenia-Iran encirclement that is trapping Azerbaijan. In this respect, the energy and transportation lines opening towards the West passing through the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan can be considered as the breaking point of the encirclement. The attacks against this region, which occurred on the eve of the Second Karabakh War, have posed a vital danger to the national security of Azerbaijan. For this reason, Baku, with the unlimited support of Ankara, has launched military operations to save Karabakh from occupation. In this process, the two allies have realized the importance and sensitivity of the Tovuz region. As a matter of fact, in the ceasefire agreement signed after the Karabakh Victory, Azerbaijan’s diplomatic success has enabled the creation of an alternative route to this region.

In this study, the reflections of Türkiye’s effort to become a regional great power in the South Caucasus have been analyzed with the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and the importance of the Zangezur Corridor in this context has been shown. First of all, the question that “How can Türkiye become a regional great power?” has been answered on a theoretical basis. Türkiye, which is described as an insulator state according to RSCT, has increased its influence in the South Caucasus during and after the Second Karabakh War and has embarked on a path to eventually become a regional great power. In response, Iran, Türkiye’s historical rival in the region, and Armenia, which owes its existence to its hostile policies against Türkiye, have began to act together in the South Caucasus. For these reasons, the boundaries between security complexes have begun to be eroded. Türkiye, which has increased its influence in the South Caucasus thanks to the strategic partnership it has established with Azerbaijan, has ceased to be an insulator state. In the coming period, it will be the most important actor in the region through the Zangezur Corridor.

The Zangezur Corridor is of vital importance for Türkiye to become a regional great power. In this context, the question that “Why do Türkiye and Azerbaijan insist on opening the Zangezur Corridor?” has been given an answer with a historical perspective. In its effort to become a regional great power, Türkiye has managed to penetrate the South Caucasus thanks to the military and diplomatic support it provided to Azerbaijan during and after the Second Karabakh War. As a matter of fact, the Shusha Declaration signed with Azerbaijan has reinforced Türkiye’s power in the region. Moreover, even though Türkiye was not among the parties to the ceasefire agreement, it has legitimized its demand for the opening of the Zangezur Corridor by this means. In this respect, the Zangezur Corridor, designed as an alternative to the route in Tovuz, is likely to be another breaking point of the encirclement that is trapping Azerbaijan. Because, thanks to this corridor, Azerbaijan will be directly connected to Türkiye via roads and railways. However, Armenia and Iran, on both sides of the corridor, have interpreted this plan in line with their own geopolitical interests and have produced alternative solutions.

As an alternative to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran has proposed the Aras Corridor; Armenia, on the other hand, has come up with the Crossroads of Peace Project. These alternatives need a comprehensive comparison in line with Türkiye’s aim of becoming a regional great power. As a matter of fact, in this study, the question that “What are the political, military, economic, and cultural dimensions and effects of the Zangezur Corridor and its alternatives?” has been answered. As a result, it has been determined that the Zangezur Corridor will be more beneficial for Türkiye than its alternatives, despite some of the political and military risks it carries. Because through this corridor, Türkiye will strengthen its own political power in the South Caucasus. On the other hand, in this way, Türkiye will be able to ensure its economic influence in the region by eliminating its historical rival Iran. Meanwhile, Türkiye will pressure Armenia and force it to adopt a moderate attitude and cooperate. Finally, Türkiye will not only strengthen the existing cultural unity with Azerbaijan, but will also have the opportunity to diversify its existing historical ties with Turkistan by opening to the Caspian Sea. It has been anticipated that, given these conditions, Türkiye could emerge as a regional great power. Indeed, the guiding question of the study, “How do the Zangezur Corridor and its alternatives contribute to Türkiye’s efforts to become a great power?” has been comprehensively addressed. Thus, the hypothesis formulated as “The Zangezur Corridor, despite some risks it carries, will contribute more to Türkiye’s emergence as a regional great power” has been tested and validated based on the findings obtained. 

In this study, regional and global actors have been examined under the guidance of the following questions: What are the interests and priorities of these actors? What are their political, military, economic, and cultural power and influence? What strategies and policies do they implement in this context? Firstly, Iran, Türkiye’s historical rival in the region, opposes the Zangezur Corridor in the South Caucasus due to both internal and external reasons, aiming to prevent the emergence of Turkish influence. Among the internal reasons are the “Iran-Turan” rivalry, which persists in the political subconscious of Iranian leaders, and the Iranian Turks, who are perceived as a serious threat in this context. One of the external reasons is the potential establishment of good relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv through Baku, while another is Moscow’s dominance over Iran’s foreign policy. Indeed, Russia regards the South Caucasus as its sphere of influence. Furthermore, although Russia may tolerate Türkiye’s influence in the South Caucasus to some extent, it will not consent to any further steps towards Turkistan, as it also views this region as within its sphere of influence. On the other hand, Armenia, as the defeated state, is persistently resisting and refusing to fulfill its commitments. It hopes to alleviate its isolation in the region by gaining support from Western powers. However, as the West, unable to intervene in the Second Karabakh War and the ceasefire process, has lost its influence in the South Caucasus in favor of Türkiye and Russia.