Analysis in Terms of Adaptation Hypothesis of the Spatial Relationship Between Migration And Fertility in Turkey
Derya Bilgin, Sibel SelimA nation’s population is dependent on the quality and quantity of birth, migration, and death of its citizens. Recently, in Turkey, the increasing number of migrant women and the change in fertility behavior with migration has become a concern. Thus, to understand the socio-economic adaptation process of migrant women and the change in family structures in destination places, it is necessary to analyze the fertility behavior of migrant women. The study of fertility within the economic framework was first proposed by Becker in 1960, and many studies have been carried out since then. In studies examining the relationship between fertility and migration, four hypotheses, namely, adaptation, disruptive effect, selectivity, and socialization hypothesis, came to the fore. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the factors that affect fertility in Turkey using 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey data and to evaluate the effect of internal migration on fertility in terms of the adaptation hypothesis using a robust Poisson regression through count data model. In the analyses, the number of children was taken as a fertility indicator. This study also examined the spatial relationship between migration and fertility by spatial econometrics. The findings suggest that the hypothesis of adaptation can explain the relationship between migration and fertility of women in Turkey.
Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi
Derya Bilgin, Sibel SelimÜlkelerin nüfusu; doğum, göç ve ölüm nedeniyle nitelik ve nicelik olarak değişen bir olgudur. Özellikle son yıllarda Türkiye’de göç eden nüfus içerisinde kadın sayısının artması ve göç ile birlikte doğurganlık davranışının değişmesi söz konusu olmuştur. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’de göç eden kadınların sosyo-ekonomik olarak uyum sağlama süreci ve göç alan yerlerdeki aile yapılarındaki değişimin anlaşılabilmesi için göç eden kadınların doğurganlık davranışının analiz edilmesi gerekmektedir. Doğurganlığın, ekonomik çerçeve içerisinde ele alınması ilk olarak Becker (1960) tarafından ortaya atılmış ve literatürde birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Doğurganlık ve göç arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çalışmalarda ise adaptasyon, bozucu etki, seçicilik ve sosyalleşme hipotezi olmak üzere dört hipotez ön plana çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2013 yılına ait Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA) verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’de doğurganlığı etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve iç göçlerin doğurganlık üzerine olan etkisinin sayma veri modelleri aracılığıyla Robust Poisson regresyon modeli kullanılarak adaptasyon hipotezi açısından değerlendirilmesidir. Analizlerde doğurganlık göstergesi olarak sahip olunan çocuk sayısı alınmıştır. Ayrıca bu çalışmada, göç ile doğurganlık arasındaki mekansal ilişkinin varlığı mekânsal ekonometri aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de kadınların göç ve doğurganlıkları arasındaki ilişkinin açıklanmasında mekânsal bir ilişkinin varlığı ile birlikte adaptasyon hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı görülmüştür.
A nation’s population is a phenomenon that is dependent on the quality and quantity of birth, migration, and death. Recently, in Turkey, the increase in the number of migrant women and the change in fertility behavior with migration has become a concern. In this context, to understand the socio-economic adaptation process of migrant women and the change in family structures in destination places, it is necessary to analyze the fertility behavior of migrant women. This study aimed to determine the factors that affect fertility in Turkey using Turkey Demographic and Health Survey data and to evaluate the effect of internal migration on fertility in terms of the adaptation hypothesis using robust Poisson regression through count data models. In the count data models, the dispersion parameter was smaller than 1 and there was underdispersion. Therefore, a robust Poisson regression model was used to test the adaptation hypothesis of the fertility behavior of migrants.
In the evaluation of the relationship between migration and fertility behavior in terms of the adaptation hypothesis, the duration of stay in the destination by migration was considered. The model for non-migrant women was compared with the model estimates of the factors that affect the fertility behavior of women who stayed <5 years and >5 years in the last place of migration. Differences between the fertility behavior of migrant and non-migrant women were found. Factors that affect fertility are the age of the woman, employment status, education level, age at first birth and first marriage, age of the male spouse/partner, sector and education level of the male spouse/partner, number of people living in the household, level of welfare, ethnic origin of the family, total number of deceased male and female children, total number of abortion, birth control method used, and location variables. Along with these variables, a deviation variable indicating the existence of a spatial relationship was also included in the models. The significant and increasing effect of migration on fertility has led to the investigation of how the fertility behavior of migrants is shaped. In this study, the existence of a spatial relationship between migration and fertility was investigated, since ignoring spatial effects in the literature leads to erroneous results. The spatial relationship was determined using the Moran I statistic. To reflect the spatial relationship to the models obtained from the analysis, a deviation variable that showed the average migration difference among neighboring provinces was created. This variable is also an indicator of the economic, social, and physical development of the provinces.
The number of children has been taken as a fertility indicator in the analysis. According to the findings obtained, the hypothesis of adaptation has been found to be valid in explaining the spatial relationship between migration and fertility of women in Turkey. However, the adaptation hypothesis is not fully valid in Turkey as further investigation is needed to ensure that adaptation has been observed in women who had migrated to where they need to go for >5 years. The influence of some of the factors that affect the fertility behavior of women who migrated and stayed <5 years in the place of immigration either changed in a decreasing direction or completely disappeared in women who migrated for >5 years. In contrast to previous studies (Brockeroff ve Yang, 1994; Hervitz, 1985; Goldstein ve Goldstein, 1983; Lee ve Farber, 1984) that have shown the validity of the adaptation hypothesis, it can be said that adaptation failure occurs because migrants are not able to adapt quickly to cultural norms, which are necessary for adaptation.
