Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach
Cenk AyThis study employs the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to investigate the dynamics of maritime collisions characterized by inherent uncertainties and interdependent operational variables. Through qualitative analysis, FRAM can identify functional variabilities within the system and explore how interactions among operational functions contribute to risk accumulation under complex conditions. The analysis highlights critical points where deviations in timing, environmental factors, and human responses intersected, escalating risks and ultimately leading to the collision. Key findings reveal how delayed command actions, communication gaps, and environmental challenges interact to create cascading effects that amplify safety risks in high-stakes scenarios. By capturing these intricate interactions, the study demonstrates FRAM’s effectiveness in analyzing systemic risks and emergent behaviors in complex systems. This approach offers insights into the mechanisms by which operational uncertainties compromise safety and highlights the need for resilient navigational systems. The findings enhance the understanding of maritime collision dynamics and highlight FRAM’s suitability for analyzing complex incidents in uncertain environments. By addressing these challenges, the study contributes to improving safety protocols and operational resilience, offering valuable perspectives for managing risks in high-stake maritime operations.
PDF View
References
- Animah, I. (2024). Application of bayesian network in the maritime industry: Comprehensive literature review. Ocean Engineering, 302, 117610. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2024.117610 google scholar
- Argüelles, R. P., Maza, J. A. G., Martín, F. M., & Bartolomé, M. (2021). Ship-to-ship dialogues and agreements for collision risk reduction. The Journal of Navigation, 74(5), 1039-1056. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0373463321000448 google scholar
- Ay, C., Güler, T., & Bal Beşikçi, E. (2022). Implementation of ARAMIS methodology in the risk assessment of chemical tankers: The case of loading operation. Ocean Engineering, 261, 112211. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2022.112211 google scholar
- Ay, C., Seyhan, A., & Bal Beşikçi, E. (2024). An overview of maritime psychology through bibliometric analysis: Present state and future prospects. Ocean Engineering, 291, 116401. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2023.116401 google scholar
- Aylward, K., Weber, R., Lundh, M., MacKinnon, S. N., & Dahlman, J. (2022). Navigators’ views of a collision avoidance decision support system for maritime navigation. The Journal of Navigation, 75(5), 1035-1048. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0373463322000510 google scholar
- Bicen, S., & Celik, M. (2023). A RAM extension to enhance ship planned maintenance system. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 15(3), 357-376. google scholar
- Bicen, S., Kandemir, C., & Celik, M. (2021). A Human Reliability Analysis to Crankshaft Overhauling in Dry-Docking ofa General Cargo Ship. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment, 235(1), 93-109. https://doi.org/10.1177/1475090220948338 google scholar
- Brooks, S. K., & Greenberg, N. (2022). Mental health and psychological wellbeing of maritime personnel: a systematic review. BMC Psychology, 10(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1186/S40359-022-00850-4 google scholar
- Daas, S., & Innal, F. (2023). Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type-2 analytic hierarchy process. Systems Engineering, 26(5), 641-659. https://doi.org/10.1002/SYS.21668 google scholar
- Daya, A. A., & Lazakis, I. (2024). Systems Reliability and Data Driven Analysis for Marine Machinery Maintenance Planning and Decision Making. Machines, 12(5), 294. https://doi.org/10.3390/MACHINES12050294 google scholar
- Dominguez-Péry, C., Vuddaraju, L. N. R., Corbett-Etchevers, I., & Tassabehji, R. (2021). Reducing maritime accidents in ships by tackling human error: a bibliometric review and research agenda. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 6(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1186/S41072-021-00098-Y google scholar
- Fu, S., Yu, Y., Chen, J., Han, B., & Wu, Z. (2022). Towards a probabilistic approach for risk analysis of nuclear-powered icebreakers using FMEA and FRAM. Ocean Engineering, 260, 112041. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2022.112041 google scholar
- Grabbe, N., Arifagic, A., & Bengler, K. (2022). Assessing the reliability and validity of an FRAM model: the case of driving in an overtaking scenario. Cognition, Technology and Work, 24(3), 483-508. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10111-022-00701-7 google scholar
- Guo, Y., Hu, S., Jin, Y., Xi, Y., & Li, W. (2023). A Hybrid Probabilistic Risk Analytical Approach to Ship Pilotage Risk Resonance with FRAM. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(9), 1705. https://doi.org/10.3390/JMSE11091705 google scholar
- Güler, T., Ay, C., & Çiçek, İ. (2024). Dynamic risk analysis of tank cleaning operations using bow-tie-based fuzzy Bayesian network. Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology. https://doi.org/10.1080/20464177.2024.2395665 google scholar
- Herrera, I. A., & Woltjer, R. (2010). Comparing a multi-linear (STEP) and systemic (FRAM) method for accident analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 95(12), 1269-1275. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2010.06.003 google scholar
- Hollnagel, E. (2013). An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change. Strâlskyddsnamnden (SSN). https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/en/publications/ an- application- of- the- functional- resonance- analysis- method- fram- t google scholar
- Hollnagel, E. (2016). Barriers and Accident Prevention (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315261737 google scholar
- Hollnagel, E. (2017). FRAM: The Functional Resonance Analysis Method: Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems (1st ed.). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315255071 google scholar
- Hollnagel, E., & Goteman, Ö. E. (2004). The functional resonance accident model. Proceedings of Cognitive System Engineering in Process Plant, 155-161. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Erik- Hollnagel/publication/229010270_The_Functional_Resonance_Accident_Model/links/ 00b7d53008fff96f71000000/The- Functional- Resonance- Accident- Model.pdf google scholar
- Hollnagel, E., & Hill, R. (2020). Instructions for use of the FRAM Model Visualiser (FMV). https://zerprize.co.nz/Content/FMV_instructions_ 2.1.pdf google scholar
- Hollnagel, E., Pruchnicki, S., Woltjer, R., & Etcher, S. (2008). Analysis of Comair flight 5191 with the functional resonance accident model. Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium of the Australian Aviation Psychology Association, Sydney, Australia. https://minesparis-psl. hal.science/hal-00614254 google scholar
- Jepsen, J. R., Zhao, Z., Pekcan, C., Barnett, M., & Van Leeuwen, W. M. A. (2017). Risk factors for fatigue in shipping, the consequences for seafarers’ health and options for preventive intervention. In Maritime Psychology: Research in Organizational and Health Behavior at Sea (pp. 127-150). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45430-6_6 google scholar
- Kee, D. (2017). Comparison of Systemic Accident Investigation Techniques Based on the Sewol Ferry Capsizing. Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea, 36(5), 485-498. https://doi.org/10.5143/JESK.2017.36.5.485 google scholar
- Kumar, A., Upadhyay, R., Samanta, B., & Bhattacherjee, A. (2024). Improving safety in complex systems: A review of integration of functional resonance analysis method with semi-quantitative and quantitative approaches. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries, 34(6), 572-588. https://doi.org/10.1002/HFM.21050 google scholar
- Latt, N. Z. (2024). Mitigating the Risk of Ship Accidents with an Integrated Approach to Maritime Safety Management. Maritime Park: Journal of Maritime Technology and Society, 3(2), 73-80. https://doi.org/10.62012/mp.v3i2.35385 google scholar
- Lee, D. Y., & Lee, H.-C. (2018). Analysis of Fukushima Accident in Resilience Engineering Perspective Using the FRAM (Functional Resonance Analysis Method). Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea, 37(3), 301-315. https://doi.org/10.5143/JESK.2018.37.3.301 google scholar
- Lee, J., & Chung, H. (2018). A new methodology for accident analysis with human and system interaction based on FRAM: Case studies in maritime domain. Safety Science, 109, 57-66. https://doi.Org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2018.05.011 google scholar
- Lee, J., Yoon, W. C., & Chung, H. (2020). Formal or informal human collaboration approach to maritime safety using FRAM. Cognition, Technology and Work, 22(4), 861-875. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10111-019-00606-Y google scholar
- Liu, X., Meng, H., An, X., & Xing, J. (2024). Integration of functional resonance analysis method and reinforcement learning for updating and optimizing emergency procedures in variable environments. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 241, 109655. https://doi.org/10.1016/ J.RESS.2023.109655 google scholar
- Luo, X., Ling, H., Xing, M., & Bai, X. (2024). A dynamic-static combination risk analysis framework for berthing/unberthing operations of maritime autonomous surface ships considering temporal correlation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 245, 110015. https: //doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2024.110015 google scholar
- Ma, L., Ma, X., Liu, Y., Deng, W., & Lan, H. (2023). Risk assessment of coupling links in hazardous chemicals maritime transportation system. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 82, 105011. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JLP.2023.105011 google scholar
- MAIB. (2020). Collision between the Gülnak and the moored bulk carrier Cape Mathilde River Tees, England, on April 18, 2019. Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) Accident Report, Serious Marine Casualty, Report No 5/2020. https://www.gov.uk/maib-reports/ collision-between-bulk-carrier-gulnak-and-moored-bulk-carrier-cape-mathilde google scholar
- Maljkovic, M., Pavic, I., Mestrovic, T., & Perkovic, M. (2024). Ship Maneuvering in Shallow and Narrow Waters: Predictive Methods and Model Development Review. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 12(8), 1450. https://doi.org/10.3390/JMSE12081450 google scholar
- Maternova, A., Materna, M., David, A., Török, A., & Svâbovâ, L. (2023). Human Error Analysis and Fatality Prediction in Maritime Accidents. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(12), 2287. https://doi.org/10.3390/JMSE11122287 google scholar
- Nasur, J., Boguslawski, K., Wolska, P., Gil, M., & Wrobel, K. (2025). Toward modeling emergency unmooring of manned and autonomous ships -A combined FRAM+HFACS-MA approach. Safety Science, 181, 106676. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2024.106676 google scholar
- Okine, E., Noguchi, Y., & Zarei, E. (2024). Interval-Valued Spherical Fuzzy Functional Resonance Analysis Method (IVSFS-FRAM): A Case Study on Aviation Wake Turbulence Operations. In Zarei, E. (eds) Safety Causation Analysis in Sociotechnical Systems: Advanced Models and Techniques. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control (Vol. 541, pp. 237-266). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/ 978-3-031-62470-4_11 google scholar
- Oraith, H., Blanco-Davis, E., Yang, Z., & Matellini, B. (2021). An Evaluation of the Effects of Human Factors on Pilotage Operations Safety. Journal of Marine Science and Application, 20(3), 393-409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11804-021-00222-1 google scholar
- Papageorgiou, P., Dermatis, Z., Anastasiou, A., Liargovas, P., & Papadimitriou, S. (2024). Using a Proposed Risk Computation Procedure and Bow-Tie Diagram as a Method for Maritime Security Assessment. Transportation Research Record, 2678(2), 318-339. https://doi.org/10. 1177/03611981231173641 google scholar
- Patriarca, R., & Bergström, J. (2017). Modelling complexity in everyday operations: functional resonance in maritime mooring at quay. Cognition, Technology and Work, 19(4),711-729.https://doi.org/10.1007/S10111-017-0426-2 google scholar
- Patriarca, R., Bergström, J., & Di Gravio, G. (2017). Defining the functional resonance analysis space: Combining Abstraction Hierarchy and FRAM. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 165, 34-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2017.03.032 google scholar
- Patriarca, R., Chatzimichailidou, M., Karanikas, N., & Di Gravio, G. (2022). The past and present of System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and its associated techniques: A scoping review. Safety Science, 146, 105566. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2021. 105566 google scholar
- Patriarca, R., Di Gravio, G., Woltjer, R., Costantino, F., Praetorius, G., Ferreira, P., & Hollnagel, E. (2020). Framing the FRAM: A literature review on the functional resonance analysis method. Safety Science, 129, 104827. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2020.104827 google scholar
- Paulauskas, V., Simutis, M., Placiene, B., Barzdziukas, R., Jonkus, M., & Paulauskas, D. (2021). The Influence of Port Tugs on Improving the Navigational Safety of the Port. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 9(3), 342. https://doi.org/10.3390/JMSE9030342 google scholar
- Praetorius, G., Graziano, A., Schröder-Hinrichs, J. U., & Baldauf, M. (2017). Fram in FSA—Introducing a function-based approach to the formal safety assessment framework. In Advances in Human Aspects of Transportation: Proceedings of the AHFE 2016 International Conference on Human Factors in Transportation, July 27-31, 2016, Walt Disney World®, Florida, USA, 484, 399-411. https://doi.org/10. 1007/978-3-319-41682-3_34 google scholar
- Praetorius, G., Lundh, M., & Lützhöft, M. (2011). Learning from the past for proactivity: A re-analysis of the accident of the MV Herald of Free Enterprise. Proceedings of the Fourth Resilience Engineering Symposium, 217-225. https://functionalresonance.com/wp-content/uploads/ 2024/08/Praetorius-Lund-Lutzhoft-2011.pdf google scholar
- Qiao, W., Ma, X., Liu, Y., & Deng, W. (2022). Resilience evaluation of maritime liquid cargo emergency response by integrating FRAM and a BN: A case study of a propylene leakage emergency scenario. Ocean Engineering, 247, 110584. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG. 2022.110584 google scholar
- Rad, M. A., Lefsrud, L. M., & Hendry, M. T. (2023). Application of systems thinking accident analysis methods: A review for railways. Safety Science, 160, 106066. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2023.106066 google scholar
- Rigas, S., Tzouveli, P., & Kollias, S. (2024). An End-to-End Deep Learning Framework for Fault Detection in Marine Machinery. Sensors, 24(16), 5310. https://doi.org/10.3390/S24165310 google scholar
- Saadi, S., Bosfot, W., & Djebabra, M. (2024). Enhancing Organizational Safety At Work Through The Application Of The FRAM Method: An Exploratory Study Of Joint Health And Safety Committees In Algeria. Educational Administration: Theory and Practice, 30(6), 2865-2874. https://kuey.net/index.php/kuey/article/view/5910/4235 google scholar
- Salihoglu, E., & Bal Beşikçi, E. (2021). The use of Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) in a maritime accident: A case study of Prestige. Ocean Engineering, 219, 108223. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2020.108223 google scholar
- Senol, Y. E. (2024). Assessment of human factor contribution to risk analysis of chemical cargo shortage incidents by using intuitionistic fuzzy integrated fault tree analysis. Ocean Engineering, 301, 117559. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2024.117559 google scholar
- Sheng, T., Weng, J., Shi, K., & Han, B. (2024). Analysis of human errors in maritime accidents: A Bayesian spatial multinomial logistic model. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, 16(6), 594-610. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2023.2235323 google scholar
- Simion, D., Postolache, F., Fleaca, B., & Fleaca, E. (2024). AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance in Modern Maritime Transport—Enhancing Operational Efficiency and Reliability. Applied Sciences, 14(20), 9439. https://doi.org/10.3390/APP14209439 google scholar
- Smith, D., Veitch, B., Khan, F., & Taylor, R. (2017). Understanding industrial safety: Comparing Fault tree, Bayesian network, and FRAM approaches. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 45, 88-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JLP.2016.11.016 google scholar
- Sujan, M., Lounsbury, O., Pickup, L., Kaya, G. K., Earl, L., & McCulloch, P. (2024). What kinds of insights do Safety-I and Safety-II approaches provide? A critical reflection on the use of SHERPA and FRAM in healthcare. Safety Science, 173, 106450. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI. 2024.106450 google scholar
- Tengiz, E., & Unal, G. (2023). A fuzzy logic evolution of the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to assess risk in ground operation. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, 95(10), 1614-1623. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEAT- 01- 2023- 0007 google scholar
- Tezdogan, T., Incecik, A., & Turan, O. (2016). A numerical investigation of the squat and resistance of ships advancing through a canal using CFD. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 21(1), 86-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00773-015-0334-1 google scholar
- Tian, J., Wu, J., Yang, Q., & Zhao, T. (2016). FRAMA: A safety assessment approach based on Functional Resonance Analysis Method. Safety Science, 85, 41-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSCI.2016.01.002 google scholar
- Tian, W., & Caponecchia, C. (2020). Using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) in Aviation Safety: A Systematic Review. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2020(1), 8898903. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8898903 google scholar
- Viran, A., & Mentes, A. (2024). Risk Approach Based on the FRAM Model for Vessel Traffic Management. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4063594 google scholar
- Wahl, A. M., & Kongsvik, T. (2018). Crew resource management training in the maritime industry: a literature review. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 17(3), 377-396. https://doi.org/10.1007/S13437-018-0150-7 google scholar
- Xiang, B., Pan, B., & Zhu, G. (2024). Multi-ship collision avoidance decision-making method under complex encounter situations. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 29(3), 600-619. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00773-024-01009-Z google scholar
- Yang, Y., & el Moctar, O. (2024). A mathematical model for ships maneuvering in deep and shallow waters. Ocean Engineering, 295, 116927. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2024.116927 google scholar
- Yasue, N., & Sawaragi, T. (2024). Analyzing resilient attention management of expert operators using functional resonance analysis method. Cognition, Technology and Work, 26(4), 619-638. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10111-024-00775-5 google scholar
- Yu, Y., Ahn, Y. J., & Lee, C. H. (2023). Using FRAM for Causal Analysis of Marine Risks in the Motor Vessel Milano Bridge Accident: Identifying Potential Solutions. Applied Sciences, 13(15), 8764. https://doi.org/10.3390/APP13158764 google scholar
- Yu, Y., Liu, K., Fu, S., & Chen, J. (2024). Framework for process risk analysis of maritime accidents based on resilience theory: A case study of grounding accidents in Arctic waters. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 249, 110202. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2024.110202 google scholar
- Zhang, M., Taimuri, G., Zhang, J., Zhang, D., Yan, X., Kujala, P., & Hirdaris, S. (2025). Systems driven intelligent decision support methods for ship collision and grounding prevention: Present status, possible solutions, and challenges. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 253, 110489. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2024.110489 google scholar
- Zheng, Q., Liu, X., Yang, M., Wang, W., & Adriaensen, A. (2024). Enhancing emergency response planning for natech accidents in process operations using functional resonance analysis method (FRAM): A case of fuel storage tank farm. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 188, 514-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PSEP.2024.05.132 google scholar
Citations
Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format
EXPORT
APA
Ay, C. (2024). Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach. Journal of Transportation and Logistics, 0(0), -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
AMA
Ay C. Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach. Journal of Transportation and Logistics. 2024;0(0):-. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
ABNT
Ay, C. Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach. Journal of Transportation and Logistics, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 0, p. -, 2024.
Chicago: Author-Date Style
Ay, Cenk,. 2024. “Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach.” Journal of Transportation and Logistics 0, no. 0: -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
Chicago: Humanities Style
Ay, Cenk,. “Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach.” Journal of Transportation and Logistics 0, no. 0 (Dec. 2024): -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
Harvard: Australian Style
Ay, C 2024, 'Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach', Journal of Transportation and Logistics, vol. 0, no. 0, pp. -, viewed 22 Dec. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
Harvard: Author-Date Style
Ay, C. (2024) ‘Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach’, Journal of Transportation and Logistics, 0(0), pp. -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321 (22 Dec. 2024).
MLA
Ay, Cenk,. “Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach.” Journal of Transportation and Logistics, vol. 0, no. 0, 2024, pp. -. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
Vancouver
Ay C. Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach. Journal of Transportation and Logistics [Internet]. 22 Dec. 2024 [cited 22 Dec. 2024];0(0):-. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321 doi: 10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321
ISNAD
Ay, Cenk. “Exploring Uncertainty in Maritime Collisions: A Qualitative FRAM Approach”. Journal of Transportation and Logistics 0/0 (Dec. 2024): -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JTL.2024.1582321