Studies in Ottoman Science

SUBMITINFORMATION
EnglishTürkçe

Research Article


DOI :10.26650/oba.1620047   IUP :10.26650/oba.1620047    Full Text (PDF)

The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin

Zekeriya Duru, Ümit Işlak

This study aims to examine the law of large numbers in the context of eight statistical works from the late Ottoman period, evaluating the efforts of Ottoman statisticians to keep up with contemporary developments. It has been observed that the statistical textbooks used in institutions such as The Imperial School of Civil Service (Mekteb-i Mülkiye-i Şâhâne), the Faculty of Law, and the School of Commerce were influenced by the ideas of Adolphe Quetelet (17961874) concerning the law of large numbers. Seven of these works emphasized the necessity of a large number of observations in statistical analyses but did not provide a sufficient explanation of the concept. The examples presented in relation to the law were found to be both quantitatively and qualitatively inadequate. Apart from these, the author of the eighth book, Ahmed Emin (Yalman, 1888-1972), brought a different perspective to statistics courses than other writers, under the influence of the sociology and journalism education he received in America. His textbook İhsâʾiyyat (Statistics), written for students of the School of Civil Service, differs from others in its structure and approach. Unlike other works, it analyzes statistics primarily through the lens of the law of large numbers and employs it extensively to better illustrate causal relationships. The book devotes a significant portion to the concept of normal distribution and its graphical representation, making it noteworthy in terms of originality.

Keywords: Law of Large Numbers, History of Statistics in Ottomans, Adolphe Quetelet, Ahmed Emin, İhsâʾiyyat
DOI :10.26650/oba.1620047   IUP :10.26650/oba.1620047    Full Text (PDF)

Büyük Sayılar Yasasının Osmanlı İstatistik Eserlerindeki Yeri ve Ahmed Emin

Zekeriya Duru, Ümit Işlak

Osmanlı son dönemine tarihlenen sekiz istatistik eseri özelinde büyük sayılar yasasını incelemeyi gaye edinen bu çalışma, Osmanlı istatistik eseri yazarlarının çağı yakalama gayretlerini değerlendirmek üzere hazırlanmıştır. İstatistiğin teorisine değinen, Mülkiye Mektebi, Hukuk Fakültesi ve Ticaret Mektebi gibi okullarda kullanılan eserlerin büyük sayılar yasası bağlamında Adolphe Quetelet’nin (1796-1874) fikirlerinin etkisinde kaleme alındıkları görülmüştür. İstatistiksel incelemelerde gözlem sayısının çok olması gerektiğini vurgulayan eserlerden yedisinde büyük sayılar kavramı yeterince açıklanmamış ve yasa hakkında sunulan örneklerin niteliği ve sayısı yetersiz bulunmuştur. Bunların dışındaki sekizinci kitabın yazarı olan Ahmed Emin (Yalman, 1888-1972) ise Amerika’da aldığı sosyoloji ve gazetecilik eğitimlerinin etkisi ile istatistik derslerine diğer yazarlardan farklı bir açı kazandırmıştır. Bu konuda Mülkiye Mektebi öğrencilerine yönelik yazdığı, İhsâʾiyyat (İstatistik) adlı ders kitabı diğerlerinin düzeninden ayrılmış, istatistiği genel olarak büyük sayılar yasası açısından analiz etmiş, nedensonuç ilişkilerini daha iyi sunabilmek için yasayı geniş bir şekilde kullanmıştır. Eser, normal dağılım kavramına ve grafiklerine hatırı sayılır bir bölüm ayırmış, özgünlük konusunda kayda değer bulunmuştur. 

Keywords: Büyük Sayılar Yasası, Osmanlı İstatistik Tarihi, Adolphe Quetelet, Ahmed Emin, İhsâʾiyyat

PDF View

References

  • BOA. Maârif Nezâreti Mektûbî Kalemi (MF. MKT.) 1225/56, 14 Nisan 1333 (14 April 1917) google scholar
  • Abdurrahman Şeref. İstatistik ve Coğrafyâ-Yı ‘Umranî. İstanbul: Karabet Matbaası, 1314. google scholar
  • Ahmed Emin. İhsa’iyyât. Mekteb-i Mülkiye Matbaası, 1334. google scholar
  • ———. “The Development of Modern Turkey as Measured by Its Press.” Columbia University, 1914. google scholar
  • Aram Margosyan. “İstatistik Hakkında Bazı Mülâhazât.” OsmanlI Mühendis ve Mimar Cemiyeti Mecmuası 1, no. 6 (1326): 137-41. google scholar
  • Block, Maurice. Traite Theorique et Pratique de Statistique. Paris: Librairie Guillaumin, 1886. google scholar
  • Çankaya, Ali. Mülkiye Târihi ve Mülkiyeliler. Vol. 1. Ankara: Örnek Matbaası, 1954. google scholar
  • Cemal Bey. Usûl ve Tatbihât-ı istatistik. Dersa'âdet: Matbaa-i Kader, 1328. google scholar
  • Duru, Zekeriya. “Bernoulli’s Theorem and its Reception in Türkiye.” Studies in Ottoman Science 25, no. 2 (2024): 401-19. google scholar
  • Galton, Francis. “Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.” Journal of the Anthropological Institute 15 (1886): 246-63. google scholar
  • Gnedenko, B. W., and A. J. Chintschin. ihtimaller Hesabına Giriş. Translated by Lütfi Biran. İstanbul: Türk Matematik Derneği Yayınları, 1963. google scholar
  • Graunt, John. Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality. London: T. Roycroft, 1662. google scholar
  • Hankins, Frank H. Adolphe Quetelet as Statistician. New York: Ams Press, 1968. google scholar
  • işlak, Ümit. Temel Olasılıh Teorisi ve istatistih I. İstanbul: Nesin Yayıncılık A. Ş., 2022. google scholar
  • istatistih. İstanbul: Mekteb-i Mülkiye-i Şâhâne Litoğrafya Destgâhı, 1308. google scholar
  • Karpat, Kemal H. “The üttoman Adoption of Statistics From the West in the 19th Century.” in Transfer of Modern Science & Technology to the Muslim World, edited by Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, 283-95. İstanbul: iRCiCA, 1992. google scholar
  • Mehmed Ali. Nazarî ve ‘Amelî istatistik. İstanbul: Karabet Matbaası, 1306. google scholar
  • Mehmed Câvid. ihsâ’iyyât. İstanbul: Matba'a-i Âmire, 1325. google scholar
  • Mesâhat ve Ekyal ve Evzan-ı Cedide'ye Dâir Kanunnâme. İstanbul: Matba'a-i Âmire, 1288. google scholar
  • Mustafa Zühdü. ihsâ’iyyât Dersleri. İstanbul: Darülfünûn Matbaası, 1336. google scholar
  • ———. ihsâ Usûl ve Nazariyâtı. İstanbul: Matbaa-i Âmire, 1926. google scholar
  • Namık Zeki Bey. ihsâ’iyyât. Mekteb-i Mülkiye Matbaası, 1340. google scholar
  • Playfair, William. istatistik. Translated by İstavraki Efendi. Topkapı Sarayı Emanet Hazinesi Nr. 1447, 1811. google scholar
  • Poisson, Simeon Denis. Recherches Sur La Probabilite Des Jugements En Matiere Criminelle et En Matiere Çivile. Paris: Bachelie, imprimeur-Libraire, 1837. google scholar
  • Porter, Theodore M. The Rise of Statistical Thinking 1820-1900. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1986. google scholar
  • Quetelet, Adolphe. Lettres Sur La Theorie Des Probabilites, Appliquee Aux Sciences Morales et Politiques. Bruxelles: Hayez, 1846. google scholar
  • Recal. İstatistik-i ‘Umûmî. İstanbul: Matbaa-l Âmlre, 1293. google scholar
  • Sabit, Selim, and M. Celâl. İstatistik Birinci Kısım: Nazariyat. Ankara: Başvekâlet Müdevvenat Matbaası, 1930. google scholar
  • Salih Zeki. “Bir Hakîkat!” Musavver Muhît 1, no. 22 (1325): 338-39. google scholar
  • ---. Hulâsa-i Hesâb-ı ihtimâlî. İstanbul: Mühendishâne-i Berrî-i Hümâyûn Matbaası, 1314. google scholar
  • ———. “Mebâhis-i Fenniyye 1: Takdîr-i İhtimâlât.” Sabah 9, no. 2807 (1313): 4. google scholar
  • Somel, Selçuk Akşin. “Rumî 1301 (1885) Tarihli İstanbul Sayımı.” in Osmanlı Devleti’nde Bilgi ve istatistik, 147-64. Ankara: T. C. Başbakanlık Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü, 2000. google scholar
  • Takıcak, Semiha Betül Bayam, and Alp Eden. “A Civil Engineer and an Amateur Mathematician: Aram Margossian’s Views on Statistics.” Studies in Ottoman Science 24, no. 1 (2023): 33-65. google scholar
  • Uspensky, James Victor. Introduction to Mathematical Probability. New York and London: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1937. google scholar
  • Yalman, Ahmed Emin. Gördüklerim Geçirdiklerim. Vol. 1. İstanbul: Pera Turizm ve Ticaret A.Ş., 1997. google scholar
  • Ahmed Emin. “The Development of Modern Turkey as Measured by its Press.” Columbia University, 1914. google scholar
  • Duru, Zekeriya. “Statistics And Probability İn The üttomans”. PhD, istanbul University, 2024. google scholar
  • Bob Rosenfeld, “Statistics moves from the physical sciences to the social sciences - Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874)”, https://community.amstat.org/historyofstats/ourlibrary/new-item2 google scholar
  • Concept of type, https://lugatim.com/s/ENM%C3%9BZE%C3%87%E2%80%93ENM%C3%9BZEC google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

Duru, Z., & Işlak, Ü. (2025). The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin. Studies in Ottoman Science, 26(2), 189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


AMA

Duru Z, Işlak Ü. The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin. Studies in Ottoman Science. 2025;26(2):189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


ABNT

Duru, Z.; Işlak, Ü. The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin. Studies in Ottoman Science, [Publisher Location], v. 26, n. 2, p. 189-230, 2025.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Duru, Zekeriya, and Ümit Işlak. 2025. “The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin.” Studies in Ottoman Science 26, no. 2: 189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


Chicago: Humanities Style

Duru, Zekeriya, and Ümit Işlak. “The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin.” Studies in Ottoman Science 26, no. 2 (Aug. 2025): 189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


Harvard: Australian Style

Duru, Z & Işlak, Ü 2025, 'The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin', Studies in Ottoman Science, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 189-230, viewed 29 Aug. 2025, https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Duru, Z. and Işlak, Ü. (2025) ‘The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin’, Studies in Ottoman Science, 26(2), pp. 189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047 (29 Aug. 2025).


MLA

Duru, Zekeriya, and Ümit Işlak. “The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin.” Studies in Ottoman Science, vol. 26, no. 2, 2025, pp. 189-230. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047


Vancouver

Duru Z, Işlak Ü. The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin. Studies in Ottoman Science [Internet]. 29 Aug. 2025 [cited 29 Aug. 2025];26(2):189-230. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047 doi: 10.26650/oba.1620047


ISNAD

Duru, Zekeriya - Işlak, Ümit. “The Place of the Law of Large Numbers in Ottoman Statistical Works and Ahmed Emin”. Studies in Ottoman Science 26/2 (Aug. 2025): 189-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/oba.1620047



TIMELINE


Submitted03.02.2025
Accepted16.06.2025
Published Online30.07.2025

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE



Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.