EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics

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DOI :10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017   IUP :10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017    Tam Metin (PDF)

Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz

Oktay Kızılkaya, Gökhan Konat

Elektrik, insan yaşamının her alanında vazgeçilmez bir girdidir. Enerji tüketiminin zaman serisi özelliklerinin araştırılması araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar için oldukça önemli bir yere sahiptir. Eğer enerji tüketimi serisi durağanlık özelliği gösteriyor ise enerji tüketimine yönelik şoklar geçici olacaktır. Ancak enerji tüketimi serisi birim kök içeriyorsa, enerji tüketimine gelen şokların kalıcı etkileri olacaktır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’ye ait 1950-2017 yıllarını kapsayan elektrik tüketimi ve kişi başı elektrik tüketimi verileri kullanılmıştır. Ele alınan serilerin durağanlık özellikleri geleneksel birim kök / durağanlık testleri ve Becker, Enders ve Lee (2006) tarafından önerilen Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) durağanlık testi ile incelenmiştir. Becker Enders ve Lee (2006), yapısal kırılmaların doğasının tam olarak bilinemeyeceğini, birim kök testleri için kırılmaların yeri ve sayısını gösterecek özel bir rehberin bulunmadığını ifade etmektedir. Bu durumdan hareketle Fourier birim kök / durağanlık testleri geliştirilmiştir. Fourier yaklaşımını temel alan birim kök testleri, kırılma tarihlerinin, kırılma sayısının veya kırılma yapılarının bilinmediği durumlarda kullanılabilmektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye için elektrik tüketimi serisinin durağan olmadığını ve elektrik tüketimindeki dalgalanmaların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç elektrik enerjisi piyasalarındaki büyük bir yapısal değişimden sonra enerji tüketiminin orijinal dengesine dönemeyeceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Elektrik tüketimi, durağanlık testi, fourier fonksiyonu, türkiye
JEL Classification : Q40 , C22 , C50
DOI :10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017   IUP :10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017    Tam Metin (PDF)

Are Fluctuations in Electricity Consumption Permanent or Transitory? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Oktay Kızılkaya, Gökhan Konat

Electricity is an indispensable input in every part of human life. Investigating the time-series properties of energy consumption is very important for researchers and policy-makers. If energy consumption is stationary, shocks to energy consumption will have temporary effects. However, if energy consumption contains a unit root, shocks to energy consumption will have permanent effects. In this study, per capita electricity consumption and electricity consumption data for Turkey, covering the years 1950-2017 is used. Stationarity of the series is examined using conventional unit root/stationarity tests and Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) stationarity test proposed by Becker, Enders and Lee (2006). Becker, Enders, and Lee (2006) stated that the actual nature of the breaks is completely unknown. Therefore, Fourier unit root tests (see Becker, Enders and Lee (2006)) were developed. The Fourier unit root tests can be used to approximate the unknown form of the structural breaks. The results show that electricity consumption series do not exhibit stationarity and fluctuations in electricity consumption are permanent for Turkey. This result shows that after a major structural change in the electricity markets, energy consumption cannot return to its original balance.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Electricity consumption, stationarity test, fourier function, turkey
JEL Classification : Q40 , C22 , C50

GENİŞLETİLMİŞ ÖZET


Electricity is an indispensable input in every part of human life. Economic development and growth depend on a reliable and sufficient supply of electricity. Electricity is used in homes, businesses and industries to power computers, lights, electrical appliances, industrial machines (Khraief, Omoju and Shahbaz, 2016, p. 86).  

Investigating the time-series properties of energy consumption is very important for researchers and policy-makers. If energy consumption is stationary, shocks to energy consumption will have temporary effects. However, if energy consumption contains a unit root, shocks to energy consumption will have permanent effects. In this case, given the importance of energy to other sectors in the economy, key macroeconomic variables can be expected to inherit that non-stationarity (Mishra, Sharma and Smyth, 2009, p. 2318). 

In this study, stationarity of the electricity consumption series is examined using conventional unit root/stationarity tests and Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) stationarity tests. According to Perron (1989), ignoring the existing structural breaks in unit root tests will lead to bias and lower power. Perron’s procedure is a test given a known break point. After Perron (1989), several unit root tests were developed for endogenizing the determination of break points into testing procedures (see Zivot and Andrews (1992)). These econometric procedures use dummy variables to capture structural changes in a series. In this case, breaks are sharp in that they take place at a particular point and that their effects take place instantaneously. Many authors have recognized that the effects of structural breaks of a series can be gradual (see Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (2003)). To properly use this non-linear unit-root test, it must be supposed that there is a single gradual break with a known break date and functional form (Enders and Lee, 2012, p. 2; Jones and Enders, 2014, p. 5). Becker, Enders, and Lee (2006) stated that the actual nature of the breaks is completely unknown. Therefore, Fourier unit root tests (see Becker, Enders and Lee (2006)) were developed. The Fourier unit root tests can be used to approximate the unknown form of the structural breaks.

In this study, the stationarity of the electricity consumption (net electricity consumption and net electricity consumption per capita) series is investigated using the Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) stationarity test proposed by Becker, Enders and Lee (2006). In order to test the null of stationarity, the test statistic is calculated by obtaining residuals from the Equation (1).

where k is the frequency, t is the trend and T is the sample size. The test statistic is obtained using the Equation (2): 

where is the jth sample autocovariances of residuals ẽt obtained from the Equations (1). Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) state that the optimal frequency is selected according to the sum of squares residuals minimization criterion. If there is no nonlinear trend in the DGP, it is possible to obtain increased power results by using standard KPSS stationarity test (Becker, Enders and Lee, 2006).

The data used in this study are the annual observations from 1950 to 2017. The data has been obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAŞ) database. The FKPSS stationarity test results show that electricity consumption series do not exhibit stationarity and fluctuations in electricity consumption are permanent for Turkey. This result shows that after a major structural change in the electricity markets, energy consumption cannot return to its original balance.


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Referanslar

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DIŞA AKTAR



APA

Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(31), 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


AMA

Kızılkaya O, Konat G. Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics. 2019;0(31):53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


ABNT

Kızılkaya, O.; Konat, G. Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 31, p. 53-62, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Kızılkaya, Oktay, and Gökhan Konat. 2019. “Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 31: 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


Chicago: Humanities Style

Kızılkaya, Oktay, and Gökhan Konat. “Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 31 (Mar. 2025): 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


Harvard: Australian Style

Kızılkaya, O & Konat, G 2019, 'Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz', EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 31, pp. 53-62, viewed 10 Mar. 2025, https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Kızılkaya, O. and Konat, G. (2019) ‘Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz’, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(31), pp. 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017 (10 Mar. 2025).


MLA

Kızılkaya, Oktay, and Gökhan Konat. “Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 31, 2019, pp. 53-62. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


Vancouver

Kızılkaya O, Konat G. Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics [Internet]. 10 Mar. 2025 [cited 10 Mar. 2025];0(31):53-62. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017 doi: 10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017


ISNAD

Kızılkaya, Oktay - Konat, Gökhan. “Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz”. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0/31 (Mar. 2025): 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017



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Gönderim01.10.2019
Kabul07.11.2019

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