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DOI :10.26650/JECS2019-0015   IUP :10.26650/JECS2019-0015    Tam Metin (PDF)

Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği

Halil Özekicioğlu, Semanur Soyyiğit

Küreselleşme sürecinde ülkelerin daha entegre bir yapılanmaya gitmesiyle birlikte ülkeler arasındaki iktisadi faaliyetlerin hacminde olduğu kadar insan hareketliliğinde de önemli artışlar meydana gelmiştir. Konuya Avrupa Birliği kapsamında bakıldığında, birlik içerisinde Almanya’nın bir cazibe merkezi özelliği taşıdığı görülmektedir. Zira 2017 yılı itibariyle birlik içinde en fazla göç alan ülkenin Almanya olduğu, göçün büyük kısmının ise Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinden gerçekleştiği görülmüştür. Teorik açıdan ise bir ülkeye gerçekleşen göçün, o ülkenin dış ticareti üzerinde etkili olduğu bilinen bir olgudur. Çeşitli kanallar aracılığıyla göç, ülkenin gerek ithalatını gerek ihracatını arttırabilmektedir. Bu kapsamda, bu çalışmada Almanya’nın Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinden 2000-2016 döneminde aldığı göçün, ülkenin dış ticareti üzerinde etki yaratıp yaratmadığının incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Panel çekim modeli ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda söz konusu dönemde Almanya’nın adı geçen ülkelerden aldığı göçün ülkenin ithalatı ve ihracatı üzerinde anlamlı bir etki oluşturmadığı bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Buna karşılık, Almanya’nın ihracatı üzerinde ülkelerin Gümrük Birliği’ne üyeliklerinin ve GSYH’lerinin pozitif, kişi başına düşen gelir düzeylerinin ve Almanya ile aralarındaki uzaklığın ise negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 
Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası göç, dış ticaret, Avrupa Birliği, panel çekim modeli
DOI :10.26650/JECS2019-0015   IUP :10.26650/JECS2019-0015    Tam Metin (PDF)

Analysis of Gravity Model on the Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Immigration: The Case of Germany

Halil Özekicioğlu, Semanur Soyyiğit

With the transformation of countries into a more integrated structure through globalization, there has been a significant increase in the mobility of humans as well as volume of economic activities among countries. When the issue is considered within the scope of EU, it is seen that Germany is a center of attraction. As of 2017, it was observed that Germany was the country with the highest number of immigrants in the union and most of the migration was from CEE countries. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine whether the migration Germany got from CEE countries in the period of 2000-2016 has had an impact on the foreign trade of the country. As a result of analysis carried out with the panel gravity model, it has been found that the migration Germany got from the mentioned countries does not have a significant effect on the import and export of the country. On the other hand, it has been concluded that membership of origin countries to the Customs Union and GDP levels has a positive significant impact on Germany’s export, whereas per capita, income levels of origin countries and distance between origin countries and Germany has a negative significant effect. 
Anahtar Kelimeler: International migration, Foreign trade, European Union, panel gravity model

GENİŞLETİLMİŞ ÖZET


Although there has been an environment in which global neo-mercantilist protectionist policies have increased in recent times and the countries have further tightened immigration policies, the increase in bilateral trade and migration among the countries remains the two most important results of globalization. Some authors who address the relationship between these two outcomes of globalization have developed a theory that a country’s migration affects trade activities between the host country and the emigrant source country. Gould (1991) stated that this relationship could be realized through two mechanisms. The first is the increase in the import of the host country from the source country as a result of migrants carrying their consumption habits to the host country. The other mechanism is that transaction costs incurred in the process of acquiring information and establishing a trade relationship will be reduced due to immigrants. This is the reason why immigrants’ native language is frequently used and known in the host country and that migrants carry information about their consumption preferences in their own countries to the host country. It is stated that bilateral trade between countries will increase by means of these interaction mechanisms.

In the literature, a large number of empirical studies were encountered, which examined the relationship between international trade and international migration for different countries. In these studies, the bilateral trade relations between the immigrant-receiving country, which is a center of attraction, and the emigrant countries were analyzed. From this point of view, this study aims to examine the relationship between international trade and migration for Germany, which is the center of attraction of Europe. Germany is the country with the highest number of immigrants among the European Union countries and the share of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is very high among the emigrant countries in Europe. In view of this situation, in the study, it was aimed to examine whether the migration of Germany from the mentioned countries was effective in the foreign trade activities with these countries.

CEE countries, based on the definition of the OECD have been determined as Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In the study covering the data set from 2000 to 2016, a panel gravity model was used.

In the study the dependent variables are export and import while the independent variables are the number of immigrants, GDP and per capita GDP of the emigrant countries, the distance between the host country and emigrant countries, and the dummy variable which represents the Customs Union memberships of the countries.

In the study, which was modeled for both export and import, findings showed that there was not any significant relationship between the migration and foreign trade of Germany. In the study, which was modeled for both export and import, findings showed that there was not any significant relationship between the migration to Germany and the foreign trade of Germany with CEE countries. On the other hand, GDP, per capita GDP, distance and dummy variables were found to be significant in the model in which export is the dependent variable. According to this, a positive relationship was found between the GDP level of CEE countries and Germany’s exports in accordance with theoretical expectation. On the other hand, there is a negative relationship between GDP per capita in CEE countries and Germany’s exports, contrary to theoretical expectation. Accordingly, per capita income, which represents the level of welfare in CEE countries, reduces imports from Germany. This situation, which is contrary to theoretical expectation, is thought to be related to the fact that these countries are former Soviet Union countries. The distance variable has a negative effect on the export, in line with the expectation. The dummy variable added to determine the impact of the Customs Union membership of the CEE countries revealed a statistically significant and positive relationship. In other words, countries’ membership to the Customs Union positively affects the export of Germany. In the import model, only the Customs Union dummy variable was significant. Accordingly, the membership of the CEE countries to the Customs Union has an increasing impact on Germany’s imports.

In summary, it can be stated that Germany did not see an increase in exports from migration. On the other hand, it can be stated that both sides of the relationship are benefiting from regional integration through Customs Union membership.


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APA

Özekicioğlu, H., & Soyyiğit, S. (2019). Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 0(60), 125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


AMA

Özekicioğlu H, Soyyiğit S. Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2019;0(60):125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


ABNT

Özekicioğlu, H.; Soyyiğit, S. Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 60, p. 125-143, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Özekicioğlu, Halil, and Semanur Soyyiğit. 2019. “Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği.” Journal of Economy Culture and Society 0, no. 60: 125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


Chicago: Humanities Style

Özekicioğlu, Halil, and Semanur Soyyiğit. “Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği.” Journal of Economy Culture and Society 0, no. 60 (Dec. 2024): 125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


Harvard: Australian Style

Özekicioğlu, H & Soyyiğit, S 2019, 'Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği', Journal of Economy Culture and Society, vol. 0, no. 60, pp. 125-143, viewed 22 Dec. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Özekicioğlu, H. and Soyyiğit, S. (2019) ‘Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği’, Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 0(60), pp. 125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015 (22 Dec. 2024).


MLA

Özekicioğlu, Halil, and Semanur Soyyiğit. “Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği.” Journal of Economy Culture and Society, vol. 0, no. 60, 2019, pp. 125-143. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015


Vancouver

Özekicioğlu H, Soyyiğit S. Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society [Internet]. 22 Dec. 2024 [cited 22 Dec. 2024];0(60):125-143. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015 doi: 10.26650/JECS2019-0015


ISNAD

Özekicioğlu, Halil - Soyyiğit, Semanur. “Dış Ticaret ve Göç İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Çekim Modeli Analizi: Almanya Örneği”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 0/60 (Dec. 2024): 125-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2019-0015



ZAMAN ÇİZELGESİ


Gönderim28.02.2019
Kabul04.09.2019
Çevrimiçi Yayınlanma22.10.2019

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