Denizyoluyla İthalatın Belirleyicileri; Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
Dünya ticaretinin yaklaşık %80’i, Türkiye’de ise uluslararası ticaretin %88’i denizyoluyla gerçekleşmektedir. Karayolu, havayolu ve demiryoluyla taşımacılık yöntemlerine göre maliyet açısından daha avantajlı olan denizyoluyla taşı macılık, uluslararası ticarette giderek daha büyük önem kazanmaktadır Küresel ticaretin ve uluslararası lojistiğin vazgeçilmez bir bileşeni olarak denizyolu taşımacılığı, dünya ekonomisinin sürekliliğini sağlayan kritik bir faktördür. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de 20132021 yılları arasında denizyoluyla ithalatın, döviz kuru, Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi ve Emtia Endeksi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiştir. ARDL sınır testi ile kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkilerin araştırıldığı çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre değişkenler arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulun maktadır. Uzun dönem katsayılarına göre denizyoluyla ithalat ile döviz kuru, sanayi üretim endeksi ve emtia endeksi arasında pozitif, Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi arasında negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Kısa dönem katsayıları açısından değerlendirildiğinde ise uzun dönem ile tutarlı olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı beklenildiği gibi negatiftir. Diğer bir ifade ile uzun dönemde birlikte hareket eden seriler arasında, kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar ortadan kalkmaktadır. Deniz yoluyla taşınan ithalatta döviz kurunun, Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin, Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksinin ve Emtia endeksinin dikkate alınması gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Determinants of Import by Sea; Bounds Test Approach
Approximately 80% of world trade and 88% of international trade in Turkey is carried out by sea. As an indispensable component of global trade and international logistics, maritime transportation is a critical factor that ensures the continuity of the world economy. This study examines the relationship between seaborne imports, exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Index and Commodity Index between 20132021 in Turkey. According to the findings of the study, which investigates short and long run relationships with ARDL bounds test, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables. According to the longrun coefficients, there is a positive relationship between seaborne imports and exchange rate, industrial production index and commodity index, and a negative relationship between Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Dry Index. When evaluated in terms of short run coeffi cients, it is observed that it is consistent with the longrun. The error correction coefficient is negative as expected. In other words, the deviations between the series that move together in the long run disappear in the short run. It is concluded that exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Index and Commodity Index should be taken into account in imports transported by sea.
Different modes of transport are preferred depending on the characteristics and size of the goods transported in international trade. Maritime transport is generally the preferred type of transport for the transport of heavy loads where the transport time is not important. According to the International Maritime Organization, more than 80% of world trade is carried out by sea. For Turkey, 81% of exports are carried by sea, 18% by road and 1% by air. In terms of imports, 95% are by sea, 4% by land, and 1% by rail.
In the economics literature, there are three main frameworks explaining the import demand; Neoclassical view, the Keynesian view and modern foreign trade theories. Although these three views are explained in different ways, it is national income and prices that play the most important role as determinants of imports. Apart from these two determinants, imports are also under the influence of different macroeconomic variables.
Since the demand for imports by sea is examined in the study, the Baltic Dry Freight Index and the Commodity Price Index are also considered as determinants, as well as the national income and exchange rate. Transport costs are also an important factor in the development of international trade. The Baltic Dry Cargo index (BDI), a globally accepted and reliable index, is an index created in the form of the dry cargo prices of ships carrying raw materials recorded in the UK-based Baltic Stock Exchange. The change in the Baltic Dry Index is also related to changes in commodity prices. The Baltic Dry Index depends on developments in raw material demand and global trade.
When the studies on imports by sea are examined in the literature, the variables of national income, exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Freight Index and Commodity Index are used separately in different studies with different methods (causality, regression, cointegration). Therefore, it is predicted that this study will contribute to the literature by using all of the variables.
There are a limited number of studies in the literature on imports by sea. The studies conducted are toward examining the relationship of foreign trade by sea with economic growth using different methods. When the literature related to the study is examined, it is seen that different variables and causality, co-integration and regression methods are used in the studies.
In this study, the relationship of imports transported by sea with the exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Freight Index and World Commodity Prices was tested with the ARDL limit test method. The dependent variable is seaborne imports (denith), and the independent variables are the exchange rate (kur), Industrial Production Index (sue), Baltic Dry Freight Index (BDI), and Commodity Price Index (emt) series. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) Unit Root tests were applied to determine the stationarity level of the variables. According to the PP Unit Root test results, while zenith is stationary at the level, the exchange rate, sue, BDI and emt are not stationary. After determining the existence of co-integration between the variables, short- and long-term ARDL models were created. Based on the 2013-2021 monthly data for Turkey, a long-term relationship has been determined between imports by sea and the exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Freight Index and Commodity Index. According to the long-term coefficients obtained, a 1% increase in the exchange rate increases imports by sea by 0.01%, while a 1% increase in the Industrial Production Index increases imports by sea by 1.82%. A 1% increase in the commodity index increases imports by sea by 1.60%. The 1% increase in the Baltic Dry Cargo Index reduces imports by sea by 0.40%. All the results obtained from the long-term coefficients were statistically significant (<0.05). When evaluated in terms of the short-term coefficients, it was observed that it was consistent with the long-term. The error correction coefficient (ect-1) is negative, as expected.
The result obtained from the study is that while the exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, and Commodity Index, which are taken as the determinants of imports by sea, move in the same direction as the imports by sea, the Baltic Dry Freight Index moves in the opposite direction. The exchange rate and industrial production index, which are the classical determinants of imports, move in the same direction. On the other hand, national income, which is taken as the Industrial Production Index in our study, has a positive relationship with imports.
It has been concluded that the exchange rate, Industrial Production Index, Baltic Dry Freight Index and Commodity index should be considered in imports transported by sea. It is recommended to test the study with different models in different periods.
