İstanbul Avrupa Yakası İlçeleri için Deprem Enkaz Toplama Alanlarının Belirlenmesinde Sürdürülebilirlik Odaklı Bir Yaklaşım
Deprem sonrasında oluşan enkazın hızla kaldırılması, belirlenen alanlara taşınması ve çeşitli yöntemlerle bertarafı hem halk sağlığı hem de afet sonrası sürecin yürütülmesinde önem teşkil eder. Özellikle deprem kuşağı üzerindeki şehirler için, afet yönetim planlarının önceden geliştirilmesi gereklidir. Bu planların büyük çoğunluğu, deprem sonrasında enkazın toplanabileceği uygun alanların belirlenmesini de içerir. Literatürdeki çalışmalar, enkaz alanlarının seçimi için farklı ekonomik ve çevresel kriterlerin değerlendirildiği çeşitli yöntemlerin kullanıldığını göstermektedir. Ancak İstanbul için benzer bir bilimsel çalışmanın bulunmaması önemli bir eksikliktir. Bu çalışmada, İstanbul’un Avrupa Yakası ilçeleri için enkaz toplama alanlarının belirlenmesi amacıyla sürdürülebilirlik odaklı bir yöntem önerilmektedir. Önerilen yöntemin ilk aşamasında olası bir deprem senaryosuna göre İstanbul Avrupa Yakası ilçelerinde oluşabilecek enkazın boyutu tahmin edilmektedir. İkinci aşamada ise, maliyet, çevresel etkiler, enkaz alanlarına uzaklık, su kaynakları ve doğal yaşam alanlarına etkiler gibi faktörleri dikkate alan Çok Nitelikli Fayda Teorisi (ÇNFT)’ne dayalı bir seçim modeli sunulmaktadır. Elde edilen sayısal bulgular mevcut hafriyat döküm alanlarının kapasite yönünden yetersiz kalacağını, yeni enkaz toplama alanlarına ihtiyaç duyulduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca çalışma sonuçlarına göre sürdürülebilirlik açısından mevcut hafriyat döküm alanlarının belirlenen aday enkaz toplama alanlarına kıyasla alt sıralarda yer aldığı görülmektedir. Bilindiği kadarıyla bu makale enkaz toplama alanı seçiminde ÇNFT yaklaşımına yer veren ilk çalışmadır.
A Sustainability-Focused Approach to Determining Earthquake Debris Collection Areas for the European Side Districts of İstanbul
The rapid removal of debris after an earthquake, its transport to designated areas, and its disposal are critical for both public health and the management of the post-disaster process. For cities located close to earthquake fault lines, disaster management plans should be developed in advance. A significant part of these plans involves identifying appropriate debris collection areas. Literature shows that different methods using economic and environmental criteria are used for this task. However, there is a significant gap due to the lack of a similar study for İstanbul. This study proposes a sustainability-oriented method to identify debris collection areas in the European districts of İstanbul. First, the potential debris volume is estimated based on an earthquake scenario. Next, a selection model based on Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MCBT) is proposed, considering factors such as cost, environmental impacts, proximity to debris areas, water resources, and effects on wildlife. The findings indicate that current disposal sites are not sufficient in terms of capacity, showing the need for new collection areas. Moreover, the sustainability ranking of existing sites is lower than the proposed candidate areas. To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply the MAUT in debris site selection.
It is of critical importance to quickly remove the debris that will occur after the earthquake, dump it in appropriate areas and dispose of it in these areas by various means. Such removal and rehabilitation operations are part of disaster management plans, and it is essential to create those plans before a disaster, especially in a big city like Istanbul, which is under constant earthquake threat. One of the issues that needs to be addressed within the debris management context is the determination of suitable areas to collect the debris that will occur after the earthquake. When the studies in the literature are examined, it can be seen that research on debris site selection uses different methods to consider many economic and environmental criteria together, and in some studies, the possible consequences of the strategies to be followed regarding site selection are analyzed with various approaches. However, the fact that no similar scientific study has been carried out for İstanbul is a major deficiency.
In this study, a method that includes environmentally friendly approaches is proposed to determine the areas where earthquake debris will be collected for the European Side of İstanbul. Within the scope of the proposed method, first an earthquake scenario is generated and the amount of debris that may occur as a result of this hypothetical earthquake is estimated based on the debris formation characteristics mentioned in the literature. Next, the eight candidate earthquake debris collection areas for the European Side of İstanbul are determined and the criteria to be included in the evaluation of these candidates are identified. These criteria are based on the similar literature of solid waste collection area or debris collection area selection literature and they include distance to debris fields, capacity, distance to residential areas, distance to main roads, distance to wetlands, distance to the sea, distance to forest areas, and distance to agricultural areas. These criteria are related to the environmental sustainability concepts. Once the candidate locations and evaluation criteria are identified, a selection model based on the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) is applied on the seven excavation dumping areas and rehabilitation areas that are located in European Side of İstanbul as well as the eight candidate debris collection areas. The proposed MAUT model combines existing risk factors in the formulation of a utility function, thus scoring the value of an alternative according to a criterion according to the risk attitude of the decision-maker. Therefore, MAUT provides superiority over the existing multicriteria decision-making methods in terms of its simplicity and the way it treats the actual scores of the alternatives in terms of the criteria as it transforms them into utility values.
The numerical findings revealed that the existing excavation dumping areas would be insufficient in terms of capacity and that new debris collection areas were needed. In addition, according to the study results, the existing excavation dumping areas are ranked lower in terms of sustainability compared to the designated candidate debris collection areas. The overall results highlight the necessity of pre-earthquake preparations in terms of debris management to ensure a quick response to such disasters and could be viewed as a guide for policymakers and researchers. The study contributes to the literature by displaying a methodology to estimate possible debris occurrence because of an Earthquake that may affect İstanbul. In addition, it examines the sustainable and appropriate criteria for determining debris collection areas and provides a systematic approach to evaluate the suitability of existing debris collection areas. Last but not least, to the best of our knowledge, this article is the first attempt to integrate MAUT in the earthquake debris removal site selection problem in literature.
