Dolaylı Vergilerin Gelir Dağılımına Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz
Büşra Özden, Hale Balseven, Fulya ÇelebiDevletlerin gelir dağılımı eşitsizliğini gidermek için ekonomiye müdahale araçlarından biri vergi politikalarıdır. 1980 sonrası dönemde, Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, dolaylı vergilerin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payı yükselmiştir. Bu gelişmenin hâlihazırda yüksek olan gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisi son dönemlerde öne çıkan araştırma konularından biri olmuştur. Çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye ekonomisinde dolaylı vergilerin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesidir. Çalışmada “dolaylı vergilerin gelir dağılımına etkisi bulunmakta mıdır?” sorusuna cevap aranmıştır. Ayrıca, çalışmada dolaylı vergilerin yaygınlaşmasına teorik gerekçe oluşturan büyüme üzerindeki etkiler de araştırılmıştır. Türkiye’de 1992-2021 döneminde dolaylı vergilerin ve dolaysız vergilerin gelir eşitsizliği ile ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilediği uzun dönem ve kısa dönem tahmin yöntemleriyle incelenmektir. Bu çerçevede, çalışmada iki farklı model kullanılmıştır. İlki GINI katsayısının bağımsız değişken, gümrük vergileri, KDV, enflasyon, dolaylı vergiler, dolaysız vergiler ve bütçe açığının bağımlı değişkenler olduğu GINI modeli, ikincisi GSYH’nin bağımsız değişken olduğu ve bağımlı değişkenlerin değişmediği GSYİH modelidir. Her iki modelde de bütçe açığı dışındaki tüm değişkenlerin doğal logaritması alınarak ARDL yaklaşımı ile modeller sınanmıştır. Dolaylı vergiler içerisinde sadece verilerin analiz için yeterli sayıda olduğu KDV ve Gümrük vergileri dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmanın uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarına göre; enflasyon oranındaki artış eşitsizliği artırırken büyümeyi azaltmaktadır. Dolaysız vergilerdeki artış eşitsizliği azaltırken büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Dolaylı vergilerdeki artış hem eşitsizliği hem de büyümeyi artırmaktadır. Gümrük vergilerindeki artış eşitsizliği azaltırken büyümeyi artırmaktadır. KDV oranındaki artış ise hem eşitsizliği hem de büyümeyi azaltmaktadır. Bütçe açığındaki artış eşitsizliği artırırken, büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilmemiştir.
The Effect of Indirect Taxes on Income Distribution: An Empirical Analysis of Türkiye
Büşra Özden, Hale Balseven, Fulya ÇelebiTax policies are one of the governmental tools used for economic intervention to prevent income inequality. The percentage of total tax revenues comprised of indirect taxes has risen in developing countries such as Türkiye since the 1980s. The effect this development has had on income inequality, which was already high, has attracted great attention recently. The aim of this study is to examine the effect indirect taxes have on income distribution in the Turkish economy. The study seeks an answer to the question of whether or not indirect taxes have an effect on income distribution. The study additionally researches the effects indirect taxes have on growth, which has provided a theoretical foundation in favor of indirect taxes. To do this, the study adopts long-term and short-term estimation methods. ARDL bounds test approach to examine how indirect and direct taxes have affected income inequality and economic growth in Türkiye over the 1992-2021 period. The study only looks at indirect taxes comprised from the value-added tax (VAT) and tariffs due to the data adequacy requirements for empirical tests. According to the study’s long-term forecast results, an increase in inflation rate leads to a rise in inequality and a decrease in economic growth. An increase in direct taxes is associated with a reduction in inequality with no statistically significant effect on economic expansion. In contrast, an increase in indirect taxes was found to increase both inequality and economic growth. Increases in customs duties contribute to both a reduction in inequality and a boost in economic growth. Furthermore, an increase in the VAT rate was identified to have negative effects on both income inequality and economic growth. Lastly, an increase in the budget deficit has been linked to an increase in income inequality with no statistically significant impact on economic growth.
One of the reasons for a government to intervene in the economy is income distribution issues, and one of the tools governments use for this is tax policies. Taxes are separated into direct and indirect taxes, with indirect taxes involving taxes on expenditures. Developing countries such as Türkiye see indirect taxes taking quite a high percentage of total taxes. In theory, indirect taxes affect income distribution negatively, whereas direct taxes affect income distribution positively. Recently, one of the main research questions in the field of public finance has been the effect indirect taxes have on income distribution. Figures show income inequality to have increased since the 1980s in most countries.
Fair income distribution has great importance for ensuring social welfare, realizing healthy economic growth, increasing production, increasing tax capacity, and ensuring price stability at the same time as political stability. The achievement of social peace in countries and its continuity also depend on the equitable distribution of income. The more equitable income distribution is, the more peace will be found between individuals in that country, thus ensuring a peaceful environment. Meanwhile, though, social conflicts have been increasing and stability has not been achievable, because states have not followed a fair income distribution policy.
The growing interest in income inequality has produced a wide range of studies since the 2000s (see Dişbudak & Süslü, 2007; Güldal & İnal, 2021; Hazman et al., 2021; Tuncer & Demirtaş, 2021; Eser & Genç, 2019; Demirgil, 2019; Polat, 2021; Karabulut, 2020; Martinez et al., 2012; Şener, 2020). Studies have shown how income inequality has changed for many countries in recent years and what factors are behind it. The main forces behind the growth in disposable income inequality for many countries has been the growth of earned market income, demographic changes, changes in household size and composition, and other endogenous factors (Caminada & Goudswaard, 1999). Accordingly, the redistributive role states have through tax and transfer policies may also have been important in the many structural changes that have occurred in the world economic system since the 1980s.
This study represents an attempt to contribute further to this field of literature. The aim of the study is to examine the effect indirect taxes have had on income distribution in the Turkish economy and seeks an answer to the question of whether indirect taxes have an effect on income distribution. The study also researches the effects indirect taxes have on economic growth, and this has provided a theoretical foundation in favor of indirect taxes. The study has adopted the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to examine how indirect and direct taxes have affected income inequality and economic growth in Türkiye during the 1992-2021 period using long- and short-term estimation methods. The study looks at indirect taxes comprised only from the value-added tax (VAT) and from tariffs due to the data adequacy requirements for empirical tests.
The study begins with some explanations of the main concept of direct and indirect taxes in terms of theory then explains the relationship between inequality and taxes, as well as the role taxes play in economic growth. The study continues with an overview of some of the recent literature, followed by the empirical analysis. The study finishes with a discussion and conclusion.
The study has concluded that indirect taxes adversely affect income distribution equality, as already generally recognized in the literature. The additional findings of the study are as follows. An increase in the inflation rate also increases income inequality while suppressing economic growth. An increase in direct taxes has also been correlated with a decrease in income inequality with no statistically significant impact on growth. An increase in customs duties lowers income inequality while bolstering economic growth. Also, an increase in the VAT rate results in a decrease in both income inequality and economic growth. Lastly, an increase in the budget deficit is associated with an increase in income inequality, with no statistically significant effect on economic growth having been ascertained.